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Archives of Business Research – Vol. 10, No. 7

Publication Date: July 25, 2022

DOI:10.14738/abr.107.12737. Alghouty, A. S., Ali, D., & Ayman, R. (2022). The Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Archives of Business Research,

10(7). 211-223.

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

The Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Amal Soliman Elghouty

Dept. of Economics

October University for Modern Sciences & Arts University

Dina Ali

Dept. of Economics

October University for Modern Sciences & Arts University

Rawand Ayman

Dept. of Economics

October University for Modern Sciences & Arts University

ABSTRACT

Scarcity of freshwater supplies is rapidly becoming an important factor in reducing

regional growth and creating tension among regions with the same water

resources. The main concern of the paper is to clarify the extent of the problems and

tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia regarding the construction of the Grand

Renaissance Ethiopian Dam. In the paper, some facts regarding the previous

agreements and tensions between the two countries will be discussed. Some

recommendations for policymakers will be presented in the last section.

Keywords: GERD, Nile River, SDGs, Water Supply

INTRODUCTION

Water is an essential part of our life and is crucial for efficient growth. Effective water

management is the basis for each of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1 .

Nonetheless, water is now a pressing social and strategic problem. A crucial national concern

already exists in some areas; "Business as usual" means that the planet will miss significant

margins in water-related SDGs; up to 40% of the world's population will live in severe water

areas by 2035. Habitats will become increasingly affected by fresh water sources (Mahmoud,

2020).

Globally, scarcity of freshwater supplies is rapidly becoming an important factor in reducing

regional growth and creating tension among regions with the same water resources. The safety

and prosperity of a territory or country is essentially linked to the supply of refueling water

supplies. Water is also a major contribution to economic development; water's value also grows

as demand increases. The future looks miserable if Egypt fails to develop and introduce a

1 “The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as defined by undp.org, also known as the Global Goals, were adopted

by the United Nations in 2015 as a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure that by 2030 all

people enjoy peace and prosperity.”

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Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 10, Issue 7, July-2022

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management approach to water supplies, which will balance the small availability of freshwater

to rising demand (Mahmoud, 2020).

In Ethiopia, where nearly 70 percent of rural people lacks energy, Great Ethiopian Renaissance

Dam (GERD)2 will increase domestic power greatly, enabling them to sell surplus electricity to

neighbors. As construction started in 2011, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi promised that the

project will be financed by Ethiopia itself by government loans, grants, fees, and a portion of

public servants' salaries. It intended to drive growth and to help pull Ethiopia's people off

poverty by the 6,000-megawatt GERD. For the Ethiopians, this mission was a source of national

pride and a meeting place in the middle of recent domestic problems (Naik, 2016).

The prospects for upstream countries that monitor the flow of the river have become a matter

of existence for Egypt that relies on the Nile for domestic hydropower, agriculture and most of

its water needs. Egypt claims that after the dam is filled the flow to Egypt would be reduced to

below traditional proportions. Egypt has been the primary winner for almost a century of

diplomatic negotiations dividing shares of the waters of the Nile (Naik, 2016).

These negotiations had not been concluded in the upstream nations, as most of them were still

imperial. The last pact, the Egypt-Sudan Nile Waters Agreement of 1959, split the river's

average annual flow between the two nations. Approximately 85% of the water flowing into

Egypt originates from the largest tributary of the Nile, the Blue Nile that comes from Ethiopia

and merges with the White Nile in Sudan. Ethiopia was not and would not accept the 1959

agreement (Abdulrahman, 2019).

In 1999, in order to promote global collaboration in the area of Nile production, the Nile Basin

countries, including Egypt, created a Nile Basin Initiative. Egypt and Sudan declined in 2010 to

sign the Fair Water Allocation Deal, but they would not be covered for fear of their historical

water rights. A year back, Ethiopia started building GERD. Since then, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan

have been engaging in several GERD rounds and in 2015 there was the signing of a "Declaration

of Principles" (Abdulrahman, 2019).

In the second section of this paper we are going to intricate more about the conflict between

Egypt and Ethiopia in the historical framework, demonstrating the water crisis in different

countries in descriptive literature review in the third section. In the fourth section we are going

to assess and examine the effect of GERD on Egypt followed by impact of the problem on

different Water Usages in Upper Egypt, then growing scarcity of water in Egypt and Sudan. Next,

we are going to talk about the Law of International Watercourses and efforts towards achieving

corporations in the conceptual framework. Lastly, recommendations have been made in this

respect to help solve expected water problems and maximize the opportunities available.

2 “The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, is under construction in the

Benishangul-Gumuz region of Ethiopia, on the Blue Nile River, which is located about 40km east of Sudan. The project

is owned by Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO).”

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Alghouty, A. S., Ali, D., & Ayman, R. (2022). The Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Archives of Business Research, 10(7). 211-223.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.107.12737

HISTORICAL FRAMEWORK

For decades there have been tensions and conflicts over the Nile River. Relations between the

ten countries in the Nile Basin are regulated by a series of agreements and treaties concluded

during the 20th century (1902, 1929 and 1959) generally referred to as the agreements on the

Nile River. Their requirements include respect for the right of downstream countries (mainly

Egypt and Sudan) to the water of the Nile by the upstream countries (inclusively Kenya,

Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia) (Al-Anani, 2020).

Furthermore, without permission of the downstream countries, particularly Egypt, they

are prohibited to construct dams or start construction projects on the river. Not only did the

treaties ensure that Egypt shared Nile water during the last century and permit Egypt,

especially after building a High Dam at the beginning of the 1960s, to achieve its developmental

and agricultural plans, but they also empowered Khartoum and Cairo to veto any construction

or scheme that could impact its shares of water (Al-Anani, 2020).

The upstream riparian states have still opposed and disputed these deals. Since the upstream

riparian countries claim these arrangements are unfair, and that their agriculture and

construction plans should be impeded by them. They are not bound by those agreements when

they were signed and their states were not included in the agreements. They are not bound by

those agreements. Due to the rapidly increasing communities in Nile River Basin over the last

decades, their growth requirements have grown and conflicts and discrepancies have increased

(Al-Anani, 2020).

In the last three decades, efforts to deal with the Nile River and to divide the water have not

stopped. A consensus was reached in 1999 by the Nile River Basin Nations, the Nile Basin

Initiative (NBI). All the countries with access to the Nile River were taken together to develop

their trust and to use the river effectively and beneficially on all sides. Ethiopia proposals for

the construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) date back to the 1960s, but

for political and economic reasons they have been delayed (Mbaku, 2020).

Despite its vast water supply, the nation suffers from an absence of energy and

underdevelopment. Ethiopia depends heavily on GERD with a population of 112 million to

boost its economy and the lives of its peoples. Ethiopia has a severe electrical shortage; indeed,

65% are not connected to the grid (Mbaku, 2020).

Ethiopia will be "Africa's largest electricity exporter," completing and filling this dam. It would

double the electricity capacitance of Ethiopia to generate up to $1 trillion in energy exports

annually to Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya and, perhaps, Egypt. The dam will secure

energy for the power-hungry country, boost economic growth and carry money from foreign

power sales. Addis Ababa also finds the GERD a sovereign national initiative that other

countries should honor; it has been a national fantasy (Mbaku, 2020).

Under the 1959 Nile River Agreement, the share of Egypt is 55.5 milliards of cubic meters

(bcm), about 85% of the water flowing through the Nile River comes into the Blue Nile from

the Ethiopian highways; around 90% of Egypt's fresh water is from the river Nile, with about

57% of Ethiopia's blue Nile water constructing its dam. Egypt therefore regards the GERD as a

threat to its existence. The GERD reservoir would contain approximately 74 bcm of water until