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Archives of Business Research – Vol. 11, No. 2

Publication Date: February 25, 2023

DOI:10.14738/abr.112.13767. Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and

Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and

Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria

Eneji Mathias Agri

Department of Economics, University of Jos.,

China-Africa Science and Technology Foundation, Beijing

Abubakar Abdullahi Kumo

Department of Economics, and Development Studies,

Federal University, Kashere, Gombe.

Manomi Jeremiah Nshe

Department of Economics, University of Jos

Adejor Attah Gabriel

Department of Economics, University of Jos

ABSTRACT

The primary focus of this study is on policy determination of industrialization and

manufacturing, and the latter’s impact on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. Since

independence, Nigeria’s potential of becoming a global economic giant has been

wasted away due to lack of diversification and sluggish manufacturing sector.

Government appears to be both the problem and solution to Nigeria’s

industrialization. Qualitative and quantitative analysis were applied involving

primary and secondary time series data. Questionnaire survey and multiple

regression analysis (ARCH) were adopted. The model of manufacturing cannot be

complete until political will becomes a major variable/determinant. The survey

attributed 32 percent of industrial failure to political factor and lack of political will.

This is why Nigeria has not been successful in facilitating industrial transformation,

despite the rich endowment. The maximum political commitment to propel

industrialization has been absent. Industrialization and manufacturing is state-led

through policies and interventions, actualized by private sector investments.

Domestic manufacturers invest capital to provide alternative infrastructure for

their operations. Consequently, they bear prohibitive costs which result in loss of

competitiveness and profitability in the domestic and foreign markets. This is

enough dis-incentive to manufacture. It becomes cheaper for them to import from

Asia and Europe to repackage and retail. It is a macroeconomic damage that most of

Nigeria’s entrepreneurs are merely hawkers of foreign goods for foreign

manufacturers, where capital is repatriated in a vicious cycle on daily basis, leaving

Nigeria poor and the economy sick. This study recommends strict policy

implementation, promotion of home-grown technology by investing in education,

skills acquisition, research and development and also bargaining with foreign firms

to enable technology transfer. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, tariff and

exchange rate policies to boost domestic manufacturing, domestic demand and

export promotion. The study finally concludes that Nigeria can industrialize with

aggressive expansion of domestic markets for goods locally manufactured.

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

Keywords: Manufacturing, economic diversification, exchange rate, Inflation rate,

industrial policy, home-grown technology, Macroeconomic stability.

INTRODUCTION

Industrial development in Nigeria is a classic illustration of deficient structure of the economy,

the country has neglected a vital manufacturing sub-sector through policy inconsistencies and

distortions attributed to colonialism and resource curse (Adeola, 2005). For six decades since

independence in 1960, macroeconomic indicators of the level of industrialization in Nigeria are

unimpressive. The British met hand-hoe agriculture in 1904 and left it behind at 1960, without

any significant changes in agricultural technology. It was just the exports of cotton, cocoa,

groundnut and palm oil. Industry was totally ignored. British manufacturers preferred

exporting their manufactured goods to establishing industries in Nigeria, (Atul-Kohli, 2008;

Abba and Alkasum,1985). Economic exploitation was very much a part of colonialism, and the

institutional characteristics acquired from colonialism have adversely affected Nigeria’s

industrialization with numerous political and economic distortions, (Dike and Onwuka, 1985;

Nafziger, 1982). These range from dependency to corruption and wasting of the nation’s scarce

development resources for decades. Macroeconomic convergence and macroeconomic stability

have always been issues of policy without proper implementation. Nigeria’s industrial sector

has been characterized by high import content of industrial inputs, inflation, volatile exchange

rates, dwindling capacity utilization, high cost of production, low value addition, poor quality

control, declining output growth, low employment generation and inadequate linkages with

other sectors of the economy ( Eneji et al,2020; Obioma & Ozughalu, 2005).

Unemployment and poverty tend to perpetuate in Nigeria, given the geometric ratio of increase

in population without a corresponding increase in industrial production. Thus, it becomes

worrisome considering that Nigeria started out with similar macroeconomics statistics

(indicators) as countries like Singapore, Malaysia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and South Korea and

even obtained independence earlier (in the year 1960) than Singapore (in the 1965) but these

countries’ economies have become highly diversified, (Kwan-Suk and Joon-Kyung, 1985; Awyn- Young,1995). Their manufacturing activities are contributing significantly to Gross Domestic

Product in terms of industrial output and industrial employment, while Nigeria’s economy

remainslargely rudimentary with her manufacturing sector accounting for a meager portion of

her GDP and vulnerably import-dependent, (Forest,1992; Olukoshi and Adebayo,1995).

STATMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Given her endowments and the catalog of industrial policies, Nigeria would have been

industrialized. However, since independence, Nigeria’s potential of becoming a global economic

giant has been wasted away due to lack of diversification and sluggish manufacturing sector.

With the inaccurate SAP policies imposed on Nigeria by the IMF and the World Bank in 1986,

de-industrialization has been aggravated with attendant poverty, unemployment, inflation,

increased debts, and balance of payment problems. Nigeria has been a primary commodity

exporting economy that is highly dependent on imports of manufactures and spare parts.

Nigeria has general weakness in the structure of the economy and the business environment

due to poor implementation of industrial policies. About 80 percent of Nigeria’s consumptions

are imported without domestic value addition, and about 90 percent of her products cannot

pass international trade standard to the West. There is urgent need to boost domestic

manufacturing, reduce over-reliance on imports, economic vulnerability, increase exports and

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Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023

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create employment in Nigeria. The sustainable commitment to industrialization and

manufacturing seems to be absent. With 2020 being an unusual year, Nigeria is in a recession,

two times within five months. The chain effects of Covid-19 pandemic, end SARS Protest,

conflict and insecurity, there is need for macroeconomic adjustment of the structure of the

economy, think outside the box and to do things differently about industrial policies. Inflation

and interest rates are on the rise in Nigeria, against apriori expectations of inverse relationship.

Unemployment and poverty rates are surging unsustainably and dangerously too, along with

exchange rate volatility. There is no time that Nigeria needs to emphasize and implement

industrialization and manufacturing than now. 2021 should be the post covid-19 and economic

pandemics recovery and stabilization year for Nigeria. The country faces the challenge of capital

inflows and reckless capital out flow and leakages through imports that needs policy

intervention. Besides, Nigeria seems not to have shown any significant macroeconomic

adjustment towards industrialization and steady economic growth.

Research Questions

The primary focus of this study is on policy determination of industrialization and

manufacturing, and the latter’s impact on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. Basic to the

established premise and problems, this study sets out to provide answers to the following

research questions:

1. Is there any causal relationship between industrial policies and manufacturing sector

development in Nigeria?

2. Does any causal relationship exist between the manufacturing sector and

macroeconomic stability in Nigeria?

3. What are the impacts of industrial policies on manufacturing sector performance

Nigeria?

Objectives of the Study

The broad objective of this research is to appraise industrial policies on manufacturing sector

development in Nigeria. The specific objectives are stated as follows:

1. To measure any causal relationship between industrial policies and the manufacturing

index in Nigeria.

2. To determine the long-run relationship between manufacturing sector and

macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.

3. To evaluate the impacts of industrial policy on manufacturing sector performance in

Nigeria.

Hypotheses of the Study

The following hypotheses are tested in the study:

1. H01: There is no significant causal relationship between industrial policy and the

manufacturing sector development in Nigeria.

2. H02: There is no significant causal relationship between the manufacturing sector and

macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.

3. H03:Industrial policy has no significant impact on the manufacturing indexand

macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

Significance of the Study

Dynamic industrial economies are widely regarded as the defining characteristics of a modern

state. Industrial policies seem to be powerful tools to promote rapid economic growth and

development. However, they face taunting challenges in Nigeria. In the light of macroeconomic

instability, economic recession, fiscal deficits, increase in poverty rate and unemployment,

there is an urgent need for the Nigerian government to diversify the economy as well as expand

industrial production in the country taking a clue from the West, and East Asian countries. This

study will be of great importance to the policy makers. In addition, the study will help to provide

a framework for understanding the relationship between industrial policies, manufacturing

sector performance and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The study will stimulate further

research into the model of manufacturing sector and economic growth.

CONCEPTUAL AND EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

The World Bank Report (1983; 1985) identified five subsectors of the industrial sector to

include: manufacturing, mining, building and construction, electricity, water and gas.

Manufacturing is the most dynamic part of the industrial sector, and without it, industrial

development is impossible. The existing literature defines industrial policy in different ways as

various aspects of state intervention in support of industrialization. Reich (1982) defined

industrial policy as a set of governmental actions designed to support industries that have

major export potentials and job creation capacity. Pack (2000), looks at industrial policy as

actions designed to target specific sectors to increase their productivity and relative

importance within the manufacturing subsector. In the same vein, Lin and Chang, (2009)

defined industrial policy as a guide to government intervention to selectively promote

manufacturing activities with the aim of industrialization. Industrial policies support the

generation of domestic production and technological capacity in industries considered

strategic to national development. It is no doubt that Alexander Hamilton observed that it is not

only wealth, but the independence and security of a country appear to be materially connected

with the prosperity of manufactures. In the context of this study, industrial policy is the

regulatory framework that comprises laws, rules and regulations governing and facilitating the

entry and operation of industries in Nigeria. It refers to deliberate government actions to

directly or indirectly support industrial development. There could be intra-industry policy such

as competition and pricing policy, employment policy and general governmental policy such as

environmental and tax policy, infrastructure policy, laws for registration and standard

regulations. Industrialization is a process of transforming raw materials and intermediate

goods into finished industrial products leading to economic growth and macroeconomic

stability. Its outcomes are; increase in the index of industrial production, economic, social and

political stability, increase in consumption and exports, availability of skilled entrepreneurs,

growing body of technological knowledge and emergence of home and foreign markets for

industrial goods.

Manufacturing is the making of products from raw materials using various processes,

equipment, operations and manpower according to a detailed plan that is cost-effective and

generates income through sales. This definition considers cost effectiveness in the processing

stage. The value added to the material through processing must be greater than the cost of

processing to allow the processing firm to make a profit. Value addition can thus be defined as

the increase in market value resulting from an alteration of the form, location or availability of

a product, excluding the cost of materials and services. According to Balami (2006) Economic

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Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023

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growth used as a proxy by GDP is often conceptualized as increase in output of an economy’s

capacity to produce goods and services needed to improve the welfare of the country’s citizens.

Jhingan (2007) opined that economic growth is related to a quantitative sustained increase in

the country’s per capita output or income accompanied by expansion in its industrial activities,

consumption, capital and volume of trade.

In an attempt to facilitate and sustain industrialization in Nigeria, several policies and

institutions have been put in place: the indigenization policy 1972 (amended 1973), the

Structural Adjustment Program (SAP,1986), The Bank of Industry (BOI), the Standard

Organization of Nigeria (SON), as well as industrial core projects (ICPs) such as the Iron and

Steel Plants in Ajaokuta, Steel Rolling Mills in Jos, Warri, Kaduna; Petrochemical and Fertilizer

Factories in Port-Harcourt, Cement Companies at Calabar, Benue and Nkalagu; Machine tools

company several textile mills across the country and Sugar Plant in Numan. These were meant

to provide the necessary foundation for industrialization in Nigeria, however, empirical

literature shows that the ends has not justified the means. What types of policy are needed to

facilitate Nigeria’s industrialization and manufacturing and what is wrong? Nigeria’s largest

export earnings and contributions to GDP comes from oil and agricultural sectors, not industrial

sector, (CBN, 2012; Ekpo, 2014). According to Duru, (2000), Nigeria has not been able to make

positive progress in sustainable industrial development due to poor policy implementation,

resulting to industrial failure. Adeoye ,(2014) examined the growth and structure of Nigeria’s

industrial sector and revealed that it is far behind due to poor and inconsistent policies

implementation as a result of inadequate attention given to industries by the government.

Similarly, Garba, (2012) identifies corruption, inadequate finances, multiple taxation and

decayed infrastructure as the root causes of industrial failure in Nigeria.

Jeon (2006) set out to examine the relation between Manufacturing, Increasing Returns and

Economic Development in China from 1979-2004. Both time-series and regional panel data

formats were used to ascertain the relationship between productivity and economic growth

and development. Secondary industry data was used as a proximate for manufacturing sector

data. The study adopted Ordinary Least Square Regression Model in estimating this

relationship. In terms of the first law, the results show the growths of secondary and tertiary

industries are strongly correlated with the growth of GDP. The variation of the growth of

secondary industry explains 90% variation of the growth of GDP.

Obasan and Adediran (2010) investigated the role of the manufacturing sector in the economic

growth and development of the Nigerian economy covering twenty years, from 1980 to 2009.

The study employs Ordinary Least Square Regression (OLS) model for this purpose. The

findings suggest the existence of a very strong relationship between the manufacturing sector

and economic development. Obamuyi, Edun & Kayode (2012) studied the relationship between

the manufacturing output and economic growth, based on time series data from 1973 and 2009,

using the co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques, they did not

find any significant relationship between both variables in Nigeria. The reasons adduced for the

non-performance of the sector was the massive importation of finished goods and inadequate

financial support for the sector leading to reduction in capacity utilization of the manufacturing

sector.

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

Again, the works of Olumuyiwa & Oluwasola (2016) examined the importance of the

manufacturing sector for economic growth in some selected African countries. In an attempt to

know whether the manufacturing sector hurt African economic growth in the long-term, they

approached the estimation process by way of testing Kaldor’s first law of economic growth

using panel data for a sample of 28 African countries over the period 1981-2015. Results

obtained from pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, and System Generalized Method of

Moments provides current evidence to support manufacturing as the engine of growth in Africa.

Theoretical Framework

This study adopts a combination of Bertrand and Cournot models in a profit maximizing

hypothesis with a separation of ownership and control, (Tirole, 1988; Ray and Stiglitz, 1995;

Sutton, 2007). Competition influences industrial policy and vice versa. Competition policy in

the European Union (EU), the USA, China, India and Japan affects industrial policy towards

research and development (R&D). Profits are derivable under quantity setting, (Cournot) and

also under price setting, (Bertrand), though the two models are often interpreted as

representing different degrees of competition, Carol et al, (2016).The basic intuition of the

Bertrand model is that unless prices are the same and equal to the common marginal costs of

“N” firms (in this case domestic and foreign firms), each firm has an incentive to undercut the

other. There are two firms (say Nigeria and Chinese firms) producing a homogeneous product

(say textile). The two firms interact in the market and they simultaneously and independently

set prices p1 and p2, and both firms have the same constant marginal cost “c”. The Chinese firm

with the lowest price (better endogenous characteristics) gets all the market demand at that

price. It is only if the two prices are the same that each firm gets half the market demand at that

price, producing Nash equilibrium outcome of the game; p1*= p2* =c.

The basic assumption of the Cournot model is that under certain conditions regarding demand

and costs, market power and total industry profits increase as concentration in an industry

increases. Higher concentration increases prices and profits because firms have more market

power, though it might also facilitate collusion among firms. This potential link between

concentration and market power has been influential in the practice of competition policy.

Concentration is itself endogenous; both concentration and profitability are determined by

basic industry characteristics such as technology, R&D, advertising, demand and general

enabling environment, which are inadequate in the context of local industries in Nigeria. The

demand is even tilted towards imported products. Increase in marginal cost asymmetry across

firms (foreign and domestic) in a Cournot oligopoly raises both industry concentration and

industry profits. However, the opposite holds as in Nigeria where foreign firms use favorable

industry characteristics to reduce their marginal costs, while domestic industries with

unfavorable characteristics and capacity constraints face increases in marginal costs. The

competition becomes highly skewed and scaled, in favor of foreign multinationals.Nigerian

industries face stiff competition with foreign industries. The Cournot and Bertrand models

provide better approximation to Nigeria’s industry characteristics as in the textile industry,

steel and automobile industry, and manufacturing and telecommunications industries.

Industry profits and specific firm’s profits vary. There may be profits in the industry, but these

profits are hi-jacked by foreign firms, while Nigerian firms run at a loss.

The major weakness of these models is that firms do not take their business decisions

simultaneously, and due to operational secrets, firms usually do not know their rivals’ costs,

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hence increase in marginal costs asymmetry across firms is not realistic. Also technology

transfer from foreign firms to local firms is difficult. As a solution to these weaknesses,

government needs to regulate firms with market power under asymmetric information to

balance market and industry competition. There should be regulation of trade liberalization in

favor of domestic infant industries. Government, through its policies, needs to have firm control

of domestic demand for imports. There should also be strict regulation of technology transfer

and industry employment policy.

METHODOLOGY

The methods of analysis used in this research are descriptive and quantitative analysis. A total

of 380 questionnaire survey was carried out, with 361 valid ones received. These methods of

analysis were adopted to allow for proper and detailed analysis of data using tables, simple

percentages evaluation, models, charts and graphs. Also, regression analyses were used to

estimate the models formulated.

MAJOR INDUSTRIAL POLICIES AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN

NIGERIA

Table 1: Catalog of some of the Industrial Policies/Institutions in Nigeria

POLICY YEAR

Customs Duties(Dumped and Subsidized Goods) Act 1958

Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) 1960s

Exchange Control Act 1962

Companies Act 1968

Industrial Development(Income Tax) Act 1971

Industrial Training Fund Act 1971

Nigerian Enterprise Promotion Decree (Indigenization Policy) 1972(1977)

National science and technology (S&T) policy 1986

Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) 1986

The Raw Materials Research and Development Council 1987

Nigerian Export Credit Guarantee and Insurance Decree 1988

The New Industrial Policy of Nigeria 1989

Trade and Financial Liberalization Policy 1989

Small and Medium Enterprises Equity Investment Scheme (SMIEIS) 2000

The Bank of Industry 2000

National Economic Empowerment & Dev. Strategy (NEEDS) 2004

National Integrated Industrial Development (NIID) 2007

The Nigeria Vision 20:2020 Industrial Strategy & 7-Point Agenda 2007

Nigeria Bank for Commerce and Industry 1973

The Standards Organization of Nigeria (SON) 1971

Industrial Park Development Strategy(IPDS) 2009

The National Information Technology Development Agency(NITDA)Act 2007

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council Decree 1976

A national science and technology (S&T) policy was formulated and launched in 1986.The

objectives of this policy were to increase public awareness in S&T and their vital role in national

development and well-being; direct S&T efforts along identified national goals; promote the

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

translation of S&T results into actual goods and services, and to create, increase and motivate

output in the S&T community. The S&T policy marked the beginning of the recognition of S&T

efforts as a vehicle for successful industrial development in Nigeria. In order to facilitate the

achievement of the ‘self-reliance’ aspiration of the S&T policy, the Raw Materials Research and

Development Council, was established by Decree No. 39 in 1987. The Standards Organization

of Nigeria (SON) was also established for the purpose of ensuring standardization and adequate

quality control in industrial production. The S&T policy emphasized the transfer of foreign

technology to local firms, via the licensing and registration of patents, trademarks, technical

assistance, research and development, training, and operations.

In line with the NEEDS and Vision 20:2020 that sets the direction of Nigeria’s industrial policy,

industrialization strategy aims at achieving global competitiveness in the production of

processed and manufactured goods. This was to be achieved by linking the industrial activities

with primary sector activities, integration of domestic and foreign trade, and service activities.

However, by the end of 2020, the Nigeria industrial sector contributes less than 6 percent to

aggregate economic activities, while manufacturing subsector of the industrial sector accounts

for about 4 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Challenges of Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria.

Does manufacturing sub-sector contribute to economic growth? It depends on its development.

It is evident that the manufacturing sector contributes to economic growth. There are basically

two possible reasons why manufacturing sector exerts positive influence on economic growth.

The first relates to the fact that the expansion of manufacturing output and employment leads

to the transfer of labor from low productivity and low sustainable sectors such as agriculture

and oil respectively, to industrial activities that present higher sustainability and productivity

levels. The outcome is an increasing overall productivity in the economy, with positive

multiplier effects on the output of the former traditional sectors, (agriculture and oil sectors).

The second reason for the relation between manufacturing growth and productivity relates to

the existence of static and dynamic increasing returns in the industrial sector.

Table 2: Comparative Relevant Indicators: % Manufacturing

& Agriculture to Real GDP in Selected Countries

Years/Countries 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Nigeria 56.94

(6.53)

30.01

(6.90)

31.17

(6.63)

33.87

(5.07)

41.14

(3.95)

38.4

(6.55)

22.12

(11.6)

Brazil 16.83

(28.16)

12.69

(30.00)

10.45

(32.72)

6.87

(20.28)

6.09

(16.96)

6.6

(20.7)

4.44

(18.5)

South Korea 33.78

(15.57)

26.06

(21.61)

13.43

(27.51)

6.64

(27.14)

3.44

(27.52)

4.9

(30)

1.7

(33)

India 42.53

(14.25)

38.91

(15.75)

31.99

(16.57)

27.64

(16.29)

19.74

(15.30)

18.3

(15.4)

27.4

(17.4)

South Africa 10.03

(21.68)

7.26

(21.52)

5.48

(22.84)

4.11

(20.96)

3.19

(17.73)

2.8

(29.7)

1.8

(16.2)

Sources: World Bank 2012; CEIC Global Economic Data Indicators; Trading Economics Data, 2020.

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Static returns relate mainly to economies of scale internal to the firm, whereas dynamic returns

refer to increasing productivity derived from learning by doing, ‘induced’ technological change,

and external economies in production. Energy supply and energy consumption in the Nigerian

manufacturing and industrial sector is comparatively low, far below global standard in support

of effective industrialization. Nigeria has innovation deficiency in the energy sector, which also

affects the agricultural sector and other sectors. However, Nigeria’s energy resources

endowments ought to be converted and utilized for industrial production.

The figures outside the brackets represent the percentage contribution of agriculture to GDP,

while the figures in brackets represent percentage contribution of manufacturing to GDP.

Table 3a: Some Industrial potentials operating, but yet to attain full Capacity Utilization

Tie and die clusters in Oshogbo and Abeokuta Capacity under-utilized,

challenged by imports and

unfavorable domestic policies

Aba leather and footwear clusters Capacity under-utilized,

challenged by imports and

unfavorable domestic policies

Aba fashion and garment clusters Capacity under-utilized,

challenged by imports and

unfavorable domestic policies

Rice processing clusters in Ebonyi, Kebbi, Cross River,

Lagos, Benue, Nasarawa, Niger and Anambra States

Capacity under-utilized,

challenged by imports and

unfavorable domestic policies

Wood and furniture processing clusters in Calabar,

Uyo, Ibadan and Osun.

Capacity under-utilized,

challenged by imports and

unfavorable domestic policies

Nnewi automobile industry cluster Capacity under-utilized,

challenged by imports and

unfavorable domestic policies

Sea foods processing clusters in Borno, Niger, Cross

River, Benue, Akwa-Ibom, Kebbi, Rivers and Kogi

States.

Capacity under-utilized,

challenged by imports and

unfavorable domestic policies

Computer hardware village , Nigeria Silicon Valley,

Otigba, Lagos, Abuja

Capacity under-utilized,

challenged by imports and

unfavorable domestic policies

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

Table 3b: Other industrial endowments

Fishery and sea foods Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Livestock processing Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Refined milk Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Metal, chemical and electricity generating

industries

Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Machine tools industries Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Tobacco related industries Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Car manufacturing industries Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Ship building Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Large scale investment in iron and steel

and industrial inputs

Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

pharmaceutical Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

technology, domestic policies and imports

Table 3c: Cottage or Household Industrial Opportunities

Shoe and leather works industry Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Textile and garment industries Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Agro-processing (cocoa, groundnut,

Cashew, Fruits, palm oil products etc.)

Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Toys and baby wears/napkins Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Ceramics, paper manufacture Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Arts and Culture Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Calculators and handsets Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Cosmetics and perfumes Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Stationeries and utensils Capacity under-utilized, challenged by

imports and unfavorable domestic policies

Innovation deficits and lack of political will aremajor factors responsible for capacity under- utilization in the oil and gas industry, as well as the non-oil industries. The manufacturing sector

has the potential to generate massive employment in Nigeria if the capacity was fully utilized.

The sector holds the key to Nigeria’s industrial development and macroeconomic stability.

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Series1,

Primary

Industry, 70,

70%

Series1,

Secondary

Industry, 25,

25%

Series1,

Tertiary

Industry, 5, 5%

Fig 2: Industry Types in Nigeria

Primary Industry

Secondary Industry

Tertiary Industry

Series1,

Construction

Industry, 46,

18%Series1,

Extractive- mining, oil &

gas, 58, 22% Series1,

Financial

Industry, 45,

17%

Series1,

Manufacturing

Industry, 5, 2%

Series1,

Cottage

Industry, 10,

4%

Series1,

ICT/Telecommu

nication, 20, 8%

Series1, Textile

Industry, 15,

6%

Series1,

Insurance,

hospitalitality,

services

industry, 50,

19%

Series1, Power

Generation, 10,

4%

Fig 3: INDUSTRY TYPES IN NIGERIA Construction Industry

Extractive-mining, oil & gas

Financial Industry

Manufacturing Industry

Cottage Industry

ICT/Telecommunication

Textile Industry

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

The question was raised on why Nigeria has not been successful in facilitating industrialization

and manufacturing. The valid questionnaires received were 361, with the following responses:

Other Causes of Industrial Failure in Nigeria:

Series1,

Ajaokuta Steel

Complex, 225,

19%

Series1, Kanji

Dam, 150, 13%

Series1, Ughelli

Thermal Plants,

80, 7%

Series1, Solar

Energy

Endowments,

200, 17%

Series1,

Agricultural

Endowments,

250, 21%

Series1, Sea

Ports, 100, 9%

Series1, Crude

Oil/Gas

Deposits, 160,

14%

Fig.4:Nigeria,s Industrial

Infrastructures/inputs

Series1, Poor

Industrial

Policies, 5, 1%

Series1, The

level of Policy

Implementatio

n, 200, 43%

Series1,

Political

Factor/Will,

150, 32%

Series1,

Colonial Factor,

46, 10%

Series1, Faulty

Economic

Structure/Instit

utions, 64, 14%

Nigeria's Failure to Industrialize

Poor Industrial Policies

The level of Policy

Implementation

Political Factor/Will

Colonial Factor

Faulty Economic

Structure/Institutions

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Why Nigeria has not been successful in facilitating industrialization? The level of

implementation of industrial policies has the lion’s share with 43 percent. It shows clearly and

significantly too, why Nigeria has not been successful in achieving industrialization and

manufacturing. Nigeria started out the same time with South Korea, India and Brazil, but is now

struggling to catch up. What alternative strategies of industrialization has Nigeria failed to

adopt? Many blamed Nigeria’s lack of industrialization on neo-patrimonial colonial

background, but this practical survey shows that colonial factor had a small but significant 10

percent reason for Nigeria’s industrial failure. Therefore, one cannot deny the fact that

colonialism has a role to play in the process of state construction, economic structure and

industrialization in Nigeria. Power is the currency that states use to achieve their desired

industrialization and general development as in South Korea, India and Brazil. However, most

at times it has been used illegitimately in Nigeria, leading to lack of desired industrialization

and economic development. A clear example is the use of power during military rules in Nigeria

that caused political instability and policy inconsistencies. The survey above confirms this by

attributing 32 percent of industrial failure to political factor and lack of political will. This is

why Nigeria has not been successful in facilitating industrial transformation. The maximum

political commitment to propel industrialization has been absent. Industrialization and

manufacturing is state-led through policies and interventions, actualized by private sector

investments. Domestic manufacturers invest capital to provide alternative infrastructure for

their operations. Consequently, they bear huge costs which result in loss of competitiveness

and profitability in the domestic and foreign markets. This is enough dis-incentive to

manufacture. It becomes cheaper for them to import from China and Europe to repackage and

retail. It is a macroeconomic damage that most of Nigeria’s entrepreneurs are merely hawkers

of foreign goods for foreign manufacturers, where capital is repatriated in a vicious cycle on

daily basis, leaving Nigeria poor and the economy sick. Underutilization of industrial capacity

has resulted to low productivity of investment, low rate of returns, and very low aggregate

absorptive capacity and vice versa. Due to over dependence on imports of manufactured and

industrial inputs, exchange rate is a key determinant of manufacturing/industrial performance

in Nigeria.

Series1,

Inflation, 90,

25%

Series1,

Exchange Rate

Volatility, 70,

19%

Series1, High

Interest Rates

(Double Digit),

65, 18%

Series1, High

Tariffs, 40, 11%

Series1,

Corruption, 50,

14%

Series1,

Bureaucratic

Bottleneck, 15,

4%

Series1,

Reckless

importation,

31, 9%

Other Causes of Industrial Failure Inflation

Exchange Rate Volatility

High Interest Rates (Double

Digit)

High Tariffs

Corruption

Bureaucratic Bottleneck

Reckless importation

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

Do the economic and social indicators favor industrial production and manufacturing?

Table 4: Nigeria’s Industrial Production and Value-Added Indices 2020

Corruption Index 26

Capacity Utilization (%) 15

Composite PMI 40.70

Competitiveness Index 116

Ease of doing Business (%) 10

Crude oil Dependence (%) 80

Solid Minerals (%) 0.10

Agricultural Value added (%) 25

Manufacturing to RGDP -1.90

Manufacturing PMI (%) 5.2

Source: Authors’ analysis of data 2020.

From the table, it is obvious that Nigeria’s industrial sector suffers from capacity constraints.

Transparency International (TI), in January 2021 rated Nigeria as the second most corrupt

country in Africa, after Guinea Bissau and 149th out of the 180 most corrupt countries in the

world. Apart from corruption, another social index with negative impact on Nigeria at the

moment is insecurity. These affect investment, the ease of doing business, imports, exports

control and manufacturing production. Since Nigeria has failed to have control over her

manufacturing production, it means she has also failed to have control over inflation, especially

imported inflation and exchange rate problems. If you can stabilize your production, then you

can control your prices.

Challenges of the Industrial Sector

There are obvious challenges, and these challenges are multi-dimensional, ranging from

infrastructure to institution, requiring a multi-dimensional approach. The primary data

presented in table 5 is a clear demonstration.

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Table 5: Responses depicting major challenges of the Nigeria industrial sector

ITEMS SA A UD D SD

1. There was no significant investment in

power, railway, ports and other infrastructure

48% 50.5% 1.5% 0% 0%

2. There was no significant financial, legal

and infrastructural support from the government

36.6% 51.6% 3.6% 5.2% 3.1%

3. There was no significant investment in

manufacturing and export promotion

55% 34% 8% 3% 0%

4. Rails, roads and ports are extremely

important for trade and industrialization

72.7% 25.8% 1% 0.05% 0%

5. Industrialization affects unemployment

rate, poverty rate, exports and standard of living

40.2% 45% 5% 6.8% 3%

6. Inflation, exchange rate and imports affect

industrial performance

50% 20.5% 15% 8% 6.5%

7. The Bank of Industry(BOI) and Standard

Organization of Nigeria (SON) are currently doing

a great job to facilitate industrialization and

manufacturing in Nigeria

30% 32% 10.6% 20% 7.4%

8. Local entrepreneurs need more

encouragement to invest in domestic import

substituting industrial production

20.4% 48.3% 6.3% 15% 10%

9. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies

are needed to shift incentives in favor domestic

manufacturing and exports promotion

36% 34% 5.5% 20% 4.5%

10. Control of tariffs, subsidies, excise duties,

credits, loans, business registration and land

ownership could promote industrialization and

manufacturing in Nigeria

40..6% 30% 5% 24.4% 0%

Policy is also identified as a major challenge to industrialization and manufacturing in Nigeria.

What types of policies are needed to facilitate Nigeria’s industrialization and manufacturing?

This is shown in table 6.

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

Table 6: Responses on policy needs.

ITEMS SA A UD D SD

1. Education, Research and Development

Policies

45.4% 42.3% 3.1% 5.6% 3.6%

2. Trade, capital, credits and technology

transfer policies

53.6% 41.8% 2% 2.1% 0.05%

3. Infrastructure policies 50% 33.7% 6.3% 7% 3%

4. Exports and Imports policies 31% 60% 2% 4.8% 2.2%

5. Financial reform policies 10% 40.5% 0% 30% 19.5%

6. Security policies 40.3% 35% 5.4% 10% 9.3%

7. Policies to protect infant industries 48% 44.6% 3% 1.4% 2%

8. Investment policies 20.5% 30% 10% 20.5% 29%

9. Land policy 10% 15.8% 25% 40.1% 9.1%

10. Legal policies on patent, copyright,

trademark, standardization, and company

registration, tax

45% 22% 3.5% 19% 10.5%

11. Environmental policy, climate change and

global warming

36% 20.4% 12% 20.3% 11.3%

12. Broad macroeconomic policies 50.6% 33% 4% 10% 2.4%

13. Local Content development policy 51% 40% 2% 3% 4%

Nigeria’s industrial failure and economic recession have market power explanations, though

Covid-19 has had significant impact on Nigeria’s trade, investment and economic growth. What

are the underlying policies and development model? The underlying policies should be

industrial policies and the development model is manufacturing. In order for the Nigerian

industrial sector to function efficiently and for the economy to grow consistently, Nigeria needs

to control a significant share of the regional and global markets. As a mere consumer, Nigeria

has no significant market power until it becomes a serious manufacturer and exporter of

diversified products. The absence of this is the cause of macroeconomic instability and the

disease with the Nigerian economy, with titanic impacts on poverty, unemployment and

inflation rates. Nigerian manufacturers face prohibitive costs due to policy duplication, over

reliance on imports, lack of basic infrastructure and ex-inefficiency.

Nigeria should learn a lesson from a country like China in terms of aggressive manufacturing

but with regulation of quality. China is selling cheap labor-intensive products like textiles, shoes

and all kinds of consumer goods which is crowding out jobs for Africa’s unskilled and semi- skilled labor. It also sells more sophisticated and fake products such as different electronic

devices, mobile telephones, wrist watches, kitchen utensils, military uniform and security

gadgets, cars and building materials, agricultural inputs and chemicals especially for low

income consumers and the governments. The Chinese have intimidating foreign reserves, their

economy has been growing consistently since the 1980s, and did not contract during covid-19

pandemic. China is using product differentiation to promote its exports with different

marketing strategies and channels. They develop a network of big and small Chinese traders

that penetrate local markets and assures regional sales where other foreign traders do not go.

These have helped the Chinese to capture African and Asian markets for Chinese goods. Nigeria

has the industrial potential to do these in the whole of Africa and beyond, but rather, Nigeria

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has been industrially captured by European, American, Chinese and other Asian entrepreneurs.

In the present global challenges of open trade, the pandemic and changing technology,

governance makes the difference in building an export-driven economy in Nigeria. Government

is the prime promoter of industrial policies, (Ndebbio and Akpan, 1991). Adequate provision of

physical infrastructural facilities such as feeder/access roads, water, electricity,

communications, storage and marketing facilities are preconditions for purposeful industrial

development.

Model Specification

This study adopts the multiple linear regression model. Models for time series data as this are

tested for autocorrelation usually with the assumption of homoscedastic disturbances. A form

of homoscedasticity that can be encountered in time series models is the (generalized)

autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) or (GARCH). The estimation procedures

for ARCH were also carried out using Eviews 10. The concept of ARCH is suitably applied for

volatile markets, in speculative markets like exchange rates and stock markets.The functional

form of the model is specified as;

MANIN = f (IP, ECHR, INFR, BOP) ....................................... (1)

Where:

MANIN= Manufacturing Index

IP= Industrial Policy

BOP= Balance of Payment

ECHR= Exchange Rate

INFR= Inflation Rate

The functional form in equation 1 above was transformed into a regressible model. In a multiple

linear equation form, equation (1) becomes:

MANIN = β0 + β1IP β2 ECHR –β3NFR + β4BOP + μt --------------------------- (2)

Industrial policy (IP) is represented by time variable which makes one year one data point. The

balance of payment is a book keeping system for recording all receipts and payments that have

a direct bearing on the movement of funds between a nation (private sector and government)

and foreign countries. The BOP contains some key items such as; the current account, the capital

account, trade balance and the official transaction balance, (Eneji, 2020). It is considered by this

study as one of the essential measures of macroeconomic stability in relation to Nigeria’s

manufacturing sector.The current account shows international transactions that involve

currently produced goods and services. The difference between merchandise exports and

imports, the net receipts from trade is called the trade balance. When merchandize imports are

greater than exports, we have a trade deficit, if exports are greater than imports, we have a

trade surplus.

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

Regression Results

Table 7

Dependent Variable: MANIN

Method: Least Squares

Date: 04/09/21 Time: 22:48

Sample: 1 37

Included observations: 37

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 6.053193 2.559085 2.365374 0.0242

ECHR -0.038013 0.020194 -1.882351 0.0689

BOP -0.000665 0.001232 -0.539994 0.5929

INLFR -0.121686 0.083936 -1.449747 0.1569

IP 0.194600 0.187010 1.040586 0.3059

R-squared 0.672819 Mean dependent var 3.929730

Adjusted R-squared 0.569421 S.D. dependent var 5.561967

S.E. of regression 5.365436 Akaike info criterion 6.322921

Sum squared resid 921.2129 Schwarz criterion 6.540612

Log likelihood -111.9740 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.399667

F-statistic 1.671400 Durbin-Watson stat 1.024528

Prob(F-statistic) 0.180878

Table 8 ARCH-Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity

Dependent Variable: MANIN

Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) - Normal distribution

Date: 04/09/21 Time: 22:53

Sample: 1 37

Included observations: 37

Convergence achieved after 34 iterations

Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)

GARCH = C(6) + C(7)*RESID(-1)^2 + C(8)*GARCH(-1)

Variable Coefficien

t

Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.

C 4.248729 2.018154 2.105255 0.0353

ECHR -0.043265 0.027117 -1.595518 0.1106

BOP -0.000555 0.001892 0.293246 0.7693

INLFR -0.021503 0.128650 -0.167142 0.8673

IP 0.283591 0.206288 1.374729 0.1692

Variance Equation

C 4.331179 5.202657 0.832494 0.4051

RESID(-1)^2 0.627603 0.479338 1.309312 0.1904

GARCH(-1) 0.349898 0.366325 0.955159 0.3395

R-squared 0.510844 Mean dependent var 3.929730

Adjusted R-squared 0.400301 S.D. dependent var 5.561967

S.E. of regression 5.562804 Akaike info criterion 6.404583

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Sum squared resid 990.2333 Schwarz criterion 6.752890

Log likelihood -110.4848 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.527378

Durbin-Watson stat 1.036179

Source: Authors’ computation using Eviews-10. Secondary time series data and graphs depicting analysis are

presented in the appendices.

Table 9

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests

Date: 04/09/21 Time: 23:13

Sample: 1 37

Lags: 2

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.

ECHR does not Granger Cause MANIN 35 1.35540 0.2732

MANIN does not Granger Cause ECHR 1.19079 0.3179

INLFR does not Granger Cause MANIN 35 2.72331 0.0819

MANIN does not Granger Cause INLFR 3.88695 0.0315

BOP does not Granger Cause MANIN 35 3.28475 0.0513

MANIN does not Granger Cause BOP 6.92926 0.0034

IP does not Granger Cause MANIN 35 4.35753 0.0328

MANIN does not Granger Cause IP 6.09622 0.0064

INLFR does not Granger Cause ECHR 35 0.56904 0.5721

ECHR does not Granger Cause INLFR 0.84150 0.4410

BOP does not Granger Cause ECHR 35 0.11471 0.8920

ECHR does not Granger Cause BOP 0.56142 0.5763

IP does not Granger Cause ECHR 35 6.68134 0.0425

5

ECHR does not Granger Cause IP 4.59211 0.0068

3

BOP does not Granger Cause INLFR 35 5.81562 0.0073

INLFR does not Granger Cause BOP 5.49076 0.0093

IP does not Granger Cause INLFR 35 0.75386 0.005

4

INLFR does not Granger Cause IP 2.65338 0.6228

IP does not Granger Cause BOP 35 5.94625 0.2475

BOP does not Granger Cause IP 3.31117 0.0698

DISCUSSION

Results show negative relationship between manufacturing (MANIN), exchange rate (ECHR),

inflation rate (INLFR) and imports, the latter proxied by the balance of payment (BOP).

Industrial policy inconsistencies and lack of implementation, imported finished goods, high

exchange rates and inflation rates have caused macroeconomic instability and crowded-out

domestic manufacturing. Industrial failure in Nigeria is a transmission effect of policy failure

and macroeconomic instability. Manufacturing failure granger causes macroeconomic

instability and vice versa. Nigeria has been an outlet for British manufactured goods, and

presently, for manufactured goods and consumables from China and other industrial countries.

The institutions inherited from colonialism favored only the exports of primary commodities.

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

The nearly exclusive focus in the literature on appropriate policy choices is incomplete, even

misleading. Industrial policy choices matter, and its implementation matters most. These policy

choices must be explained, and more importantly, the impact of the same policy applied in two

different countries may vary in outcomes due to different contextual settings, different initial

conditions or backgrounds of the two economies, the political will and institutional conditions.

On issues of comparative political economy, there are dramatic variations in performance

across South Korea, Brazil, India and Nigeria, especially in rates of industrialization and

manufacturing. Adaptability to state economic priorities is a necessary prerequisite for

successful industrialization. Oil exports in Nigeriaprovided a ready source of income and

demand for foreign manufactures which blinded the government against local content

development and other sectors for decades, but this is not sustainable. It was worsened by

policy inconsistencies, political instability, corruption, low quality, high costs of imported

inputs, failure to support indigenous entrepreneurs and develop local contents, which

reinforced the existing weakness of the national private sector in manufacturing and industry.

Nigeria did not have a significant industrial base. Amongst the factors hindering Nigeria’s

industrialization are low rates of investment in the sector and unfavorable domestic

preconditions. There is a causal positive relationship between manufacturing exports and

economic growth. Manufacturing is a necessary and sufficient condition for macroeconomic

stability in Nigeria. Consequently, Nigeria needs greater economic competitiveness through

industrialization, manufacturing and exports. The Bank of Industry (BOI) and the Standard

Organization of Nigeria (SON) are doing a great job, however, local entrepreneurs need more

encouragement to invest in domestic import-substituting industrial production.

There is a significant bi-directional causality between industrial policy, manufacturing, exports

and macroeconomic stability. The absence of significant manufacturing exports is significantly

responsible for macroeconomic instability in Nigeria and vice versa. Weak industrial sector and

over-reliance on imports have created inflationary trends, exchange rate volatility and

macroeconomic instability. Domestic manufacturers face serious financial stress, policy

somersault and inconsistencies. Land, machines, buildings and other industrial inputs are

inflated beyond the reach of small scale industrial entrepreneurs. Total expenditure on

electricity, plant and equipment that is mostly undertaken with the expectation of reducing

costs, producing goods, increasing competitiveness, generating profits and growing the

economy often produces the opposite outcomes.

Nigeria has had a number of trade facilitation initiatives suitable for industrialization. In the

year 2020-2021, we have had the African Free Trade Facilitation Agreement signed with

common border arrangements, but with severe domestic fiscal crisis. We also have the

Economic Partnership Agreement and the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan. What matters is

evaluating the implementation of these initiatives. If 60 percent-70 percent of Nigeria’s

production and consumption are home-made, with quality value-addition, it will reduce over

reliance on imports, economic vulnerability and create employment. Nigeria will benefit from

these plans and agreements. Government revenue will increase for industrial infrastructures,

per capita income as well as the standard of living will rise. However, smaller African countries

like South Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, etc. could hijack the gains of trade agreements, if

Nigeria’s manufacturing subsector remains stagnant. Adequate preparation should be made to

facilitate domestic manufactures and exports. Presently, currency and exchange rate is a

serious challenge to Nigeria’s commerce and industry. The Nigerian economy is vulnerably tied

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to the US Dollar. This hinders domestic, regional trade facilitation as well as industrialization.

Importation of industrial inputs are so costly that Nigerian manufacturers are not competitively

profitable both at domestic and foreign markets.

RECOMMENDATIONS

This study recommends strict industrial policy implementation, economy diversification,

manufacturing value added, local content development, imports restriction, and export

promotion. Nigeria should strengthen her capacity to produce. An integrated manufacturing

transformation, using the instrument of industrial policy is urgently needed in the oil and non- oil sectors. Government intervention aimed at boosting private sector’s

investment/profitability is strongly recommended to achieve rapid industrialization in Nigeria:

creating enabling environment and putting solid infrastructure in place. Others are tariff,

subsidies, credit control, research and development, technology promotion, manpower training

and removal of bureaucratic bottlenecks in business registration, land ownership and general

transactions.

If Ajaokuta and other steel complexes in Nigeria were well developed, Nigeria will have no

business importing iron and steel. The costs of these inputs for building and construction will

drastically reduce, railway inputs, cars, spare parts, bicycle refrigerators, tractors and

machineries and other farm and industrial inputs will be domestically manufactured, used and

also exported. The multiplier effects on government revenue and jobs will be amazing. A survey

of Nigerian streets shows dumping of bicycles, cars and machineries that are not road-worthy,

but were imported using our hard-earned foreign exchange and causing macroeconomic

instability. If there are not financial control or exchange rate policy to protect domestic

manufacturers, high exchange rate has forced many out of business due to prohibitive costs;

cost of imported raw materials, electricity, transportation and inflation. This is why local

manufacturers in Nigeria find it difficult to produce competitive products both for exports and

for the domestic markets. For instance, a rubber shoe made in Nigeria at N2000 is more

expensive than a synthetic leather shoe imported from China at N1000.

Promotion of technology by investing in education, skills acquisition, research and

development and also bargaining with foreign firms to enable technology transfer.

Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, tariff and exchange rate policies to boost domestic

investment and domestic demand. Others are newer policies that shift the incentives in favor

of export promotion, promoting production for both domestic and foreign markets, subsidizing

exports without devaluing domestic currency. We recommend the aggressive expansion of

domestic markets for goods locally manufactured.

CONCLUSION

Nigeria deserves restitution from her colonial masters for the exploitation of her scarce

resources and underdevelopment of her industrial sector. Again, Nigeria would have used the

unsustainable huge oil revenue after independence to develop a sustainable industrial sector.

Market imperfections prevalent in Nigeria necessitated state intervention, indigenization, and

import substitution industrialization policies, but these have not been implemented to the

latter. Industrial growth is a key determinant of any country’s overall economic growth and

macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, economic growth remains a core element of

development. Government appears to be both the problem and solution to Nigeria’s

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

industrialization. The only authority to create industrial policies and enforce compliance is the

government. The model of manufacturing cannot be complete until political will becomes a

major variable/determinant. Domestic manufacturing holds the key to Nigeria’s

industrialization and macroeconomic stability. Government should stop exporting primary

products, rally round the private sector to mobilize our natural resource endowments and

develop a technically up-to-date, diversified domestic economic structures characterized by

dynamic manufacturing. Nigerian industries need infrastructure, security as well as market,

which policy needs to implement.

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Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

APPENDICES

DATA FOR REGRESSION

ECHR INLFR BOP IP MANIN YEAR

0.426 6 -8 1 4.8 1960

0.563 6.5 1 2 6.9 1965

0.645 13.9 -29 3 4.3 1970

0.614 33.9 20 4 4.5 1975

0.53 10 12.94 5 8.9 1980

1.062 4.7 -2.31 6 10.6 1985

1.002 7.5 -2.74 7 9.8 1990

8.0596 12.9 -2.52 8 19.8 1991

9.9 44.5 0.16 9 7.6 1992

18 57.3 -5614 10 9.2 1993

21.86 57 -2989 11 -4.8 1994

21.87 73.1 -1794 12 -4.1 1995

22.05 29.1 -0.7 13 -0.9 1996

64.82 8.5 -0.6 14 -5.5 1997

81.65 10 -0.2 15 1 1998

81.886 6.6 -0.4 16 0.3 1999

81.886 6.9 -2.5 17 -3.9 2000

91.8 18.9 -2.2 18 3.5 2001

92.69 12.8 -2 19 2.8 2002

102.105 13.9 -2.1 20 4.2 2003

111.94 15.4 -1.7 21 10.9 2004

120.97 16.9 -1.8 22 5.7 2005

129.3565 8.4 -1.2 23 -2.5 2006

133.5 5.4 -2.3 24 -3.3 2007

132.14 12 10.7 25 3.5 2008

128.65 12.6 9 26 2.9 2009

125.83 13.8 5.1 27 4.5 2010

118.56 10.9 3.9 28 6.4 2011

148.88 12.2 3 29 6.5 2012

150.29 9 4.4 30 6.8 2013

153.86 8 3.6 31 6.5 2014

157.31 9 0.2 32 6.4 2015

158.55 16 -1.8 33 10.9 2016

253.49 12.6 3.4 34 7.3 2017

350.65 12.09 7.639 35 -5.7 2018

365.37 11.4 3.903 36 0.8 2019

379.5 12.88 4.355 37 -1.2 2020

Sources: CBN Money and Credits Statistics 2013-2016; CBN statistical bulletin (Various Issues); CBN annual report

and statement of accounts (Various Issues); World Development Indicators(Various Issues) and CEIC, Global

Economic Data Indicators.

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52

Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023

Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MANIN

0

20

40

60

80

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

INLFR

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

BOP

0

10

20

30

40

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

IP

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Standardized Residuals

Page 26 of 26

53

Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in

Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Residual Actual Fitted

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MANINF ± 2 S.E.

Forecast: MANINF

Actual: MANIN

Forecast sample: 1 37

Included observations: 37

Root Mean Squared Error 4.989754

Mean Absolute Error 3.828291

Mean Abs. Percent Error 142.7632

Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.441879

Bias Proportion 0.000000

Variance Proportion 0.412714

Covariance Proportion 0.587286