Page 1 of 26
Archives of Business Research – Vol. 11, No. 2
Publication Date: February 25, 2023
DOI:10.14738/abr.112.13767. Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and
Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and
Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria
Eneji Mathias Agri
Department of Economics, University of Jos.,
China-Africa Science and Technology Foundation, Beijing
Abubakar Abdullahi Kumo
Department of Economics, and Development Studies,
Federal University, Kashere, Gombe.
Manomi Jeremiah Nshe
Department of Economics, University of Jos
Adejor Attah Gabriel
Department of Economics, University of Jos
ABSTRACT
The primary focus of this study is on policy determination of industrialization and
manufacturing, and the latter’s impact on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. Since
independence, Nigeria’s potential of becoming a global economic giant has been
wasted away due to lack of diversification and sluggish manufacturing sector.
Government appears to be both the problem and solution to Nigeria’s
industrialization. Qualitative and quantitative analysis were applied involving
primary and secondary time series data. Questionnaire survey and multiple
regression analysis (ARCH) were adopted. The model of manufacturing cannot be
complete until political will becomes a major variable/determinant. The survey
attributed 32 percent of industrial failure to political factor and lack of political will.
This is why Nigeria has not been successful in facilitating industrial transformation,
despite the rich endowment. The maximum political commitment to propel
industrialization has been absent. Industrialization and manufacturing is state-led
through policies and interventions, actualized by private sector investments.
Domestic manufacturers invest capital to provide alternative infrastructure for
their operations. Consequently, they bear prohibitive costs which result in loss of
competitiveness and profitability in the domestic and foreign markets. This is
enough dis-incentive to manufacture. It becomes cheaper for them to import from
Asia and Europe to repackage and retail. It is a macroeconomic damage that most of
Nigeria’s entrepreneurs are merely hawkers of foreign goods for foreign
manufacturers, where capital is repatriated in a vicious cycle on daily basis, leaving
Nigeria poor and the economy sick. This study recommends strict policy
implementation, promotion of home-grown technology by investing in education,
skills acquisition, research and development and also bargaining with foreign firms
to enable technology transfer. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, tariff and
exchange rate policies to boost domestic manufacturing, domestic demand and
export promotion. The study finally concludes that Nigeria can industrialize with
aggressive expansion of domestic markets for goods locally manufactured.
Page 2 of 26
29
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
Keywords: Manufacturing, economic diversification, exchange rate, Inflation rate,
industrial policy, home-grown technology, Macroeconomic stability.
INTRODUCTION
Industrial development in Nigeria is a classic illustration of deficient structure of the economy,
the country has neglected a vital manufacturing sub-sector through policy inconsistencies and
distortions attributed to colonialism and resource curse (Adeola, 2005). For six decades since
independence in 1960, macroeconomic indicators of the level of industrialization in Nigeria are
unimpressive. The British met hand-hoe agriculture in 1904 and left it behind at 1960, without
any significant changes in agricultural technology. It was just the exports of cotton, cocoa,
groundnut and palm oil. Industry was totally ignored. British manufacturers preferred
exporting their manufactured goods to establishing industries in Nigeria, (Atul-Kohli, 2008;
Abba and Alkasum,1985). Economic exploitation was very much a part of colonialism, and the
institutional characteristics acquired from colonialism have adversely affected Nigeria’s
industrialization with numerous political and economic distortions, (Dike and Onwuka, 1985;
Nafziger, 1982). These range from dependency to corruption and wasting of the nation’s scarce
development resources for decades. Macroeconomic convergence and macroeconomic stability
have always been issues of policy without proper implementation. Nigeria’s industrial sector
has been characterized by high import content of industrial inputs, inflation, volatile exchange
rates, dwindling capacity utilization, high cost of production, low value addition, poor quality
control, declining output growth, low employment generation and inadequate linkages with
other sectors of the economy ( Eneji et al,2020; Obioma & Ozughalu, 2005).
Unemployment and poverty tend to perpetuate in Nigeria, given the geometric ratio of increase
in population without a corresponding increase in industrial production. Thus, it becomes
worrisome considering that Nigeria started out with similar macroeconomics statistics
(indicators) as countries like Singapore, Malaysia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and South Korea and
even obtained independence earlier (in the year 1960) than Singapore (in the 1965) but these
countries’ economies have become highly diversified, (Kwan-Suk and Joon-Kyung, 1985; Awyn- Young,1995). Their manufacturing activities are contributing significantly to Gross Domestic
Product in terms of industrial output and industrial employment, while Nigeria’s economy
remainslargely rudimentary with her manufacturing sector accounting for a meager portion of
her GDP and vulnerably import-dependent, (Forest,1992; Olukoshi and Adebayo,1995).
STATMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Given her endowments and the catalog of industrial policies, Nigeria would have been
industrialized. However, since independence, Nigeria’s potential of becoming a global economic
giant has been wasted away due to lack of diversification and sluggish manufacturing sector.
With the inaccurate SAP policies imposed on Nigeria by the IMF and the World Bank in 1986,
de-industrialization has been aggravated with attendant poverty, unemployment, inflation,
increased debts, and balance of payment problems. Nigeria has been a primary commodity
exporting economy that is highly dependent on imports of manufactures and spare parts.
Nigeria has general weakness in the structure of the economy and the business environment
due to poor implementation of industrial policies. About 80 percent of Nigeria’s consumptions
are imported without domestic value addition, and about 90 percent of her products cannot
pass international trade standard to the West. There is urgent need to boost domestic
manufacturing, reduce over-reliance on imports, economic vulnerability, increase exports and
Page 3 of 26
30
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
create employment in Nigeria. The sustainable commitment to industrialization and
manufacturing seems to be absent. With 2020 being an unusual year, Nigeria is in a recession,
two times within five months. The chain effects of Covid-19 pandemic, end SARS Protest,
conflict and insecurity, there is need for macroeconomic adjustment of the structure of the
economy, think outside the box and to do things differently about industrial policies. Inflation
and interest rates are on the rise in Nigeria, against apriori expectations of inverse relationship.
Unemployment and poverty rates are surging unsustainably and dangerously too, along with
exchange rate volatility. There is no time that Nigeria needs to emphasize and implement
industrialization and manufacturing than now. 2021 should be the post covid-19 and economic
pandemics recovery and stabilization year for Nigeria. The country faces the challenge of capital
inflows and reckless capital out flow and leakages through imports that needs policy
intervention. Besides, Nigeria seems not to have shown any significant macroeconomic
adjustment towards industrialization and steady economic growth.
Research Questions
The primary focus of this study is on policy determination of industrialization and
manufacturing, and the latter’s impact on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. Basic to the
established premise and problems, this study sets out to provide answers to the following
research questions:
1. Is there any causal relationship between industrial policies and manufacturing sector
development in Nigeria?
2. Does any causal relationship exist between the manufacturing sector and
macroeconomic stability in Nigeria?
3. What are the impacts of industrial policies on manufacturing sector performance
Nigeria?
Objectives of the Study
The broad objective of this research is to appraise industrial policies on manufacturing sector
development in Nigeria. The specific objectives are stated as follows:
1. To measure any causal relationship between industrial policies and the manufacturing
index in Nigeria.
2. To determine the long-run relationship between manufacturing sector and
macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.
3. To evaluate the impacts of industrial policy on manufacturing sector performance in
Nigeria.
Hypotheses of the Study
The following hypotheses are tested in the study:
1. H01: There is no significant causal relationship between industrial policy and the
manufacturing sector development in Nigeria.
2. H02: There is no significant causal relationship between the manufacturing sector and
macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.
3. H03:Industrial policy has no significant impact on the manufacturing indexand
macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.
Page 4 of 26
31
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
Significance of the Study
Dynamic industrial economies are widely regarded as the defining characteristics of a modern
state. Industrial policies seem to be powerful tools to promote rapid economic growth and
development. However, they face taunting challenges in Nigeria. In the light of macroeconomic
instability, economic recession, fiscal deficits, increase in poverty rate and unemployment,
there is an urgent need for the Nigerian government to diversify the economy as well as expand
industrial production in the country taking a clue from the West, and East Asian countries. This
study will be of great importance to the policy makers. In addition, the study will help to provide
a framework for understanding the relationship between industrial policies, manufacturing
sector performance and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The study will stimulate further
research into the model of manufacturing sector and economic growth.
CONCEPTUAL AND EMPIRICAL LITERATURE
The World Bank Report (1983; 1985) identified five subsectors of the industrial sector to
include: manufacturing, mining, building and construction, electricity, water and gas.
Manufacturing is the most dynamic part of the industrial sector, and without it, industrial
development is impossible. The existing literature defines industrial policy in different ways as
various aspects of state intervention in support of industrialization. Reich (1982) defined
industrial policy as a set of governmental actions designed to support industries that have
major export potentials and job creation capacity. Pack (2000), looks at industrial policy as
actions designed to target specific sectors to increase their productivity and relative
importance within the manufacturing subsector. In the same vein, Lin and Chang, (2009)
defined industrial policy as a guide to government intervention to selectively promote
manufacturing activities with the aim of industrialization. Industrial policies support the
generation of domestic production and technological capacity in industries considered
strategic to national development. It is no doubt that Alexander Hamilton observed that it is not
only wealth, but the independence and security of a country appear to be materially connected
with the prosperity of manufactures. In the context of this study, industrial policy is the
regulatory framework that comprises laws, rules and regulations governing and facilitating the
entry and operation of industries in Nigeria. It refers to deliberate government actions to
directly or indirectly support industrial development. There could be intra-industry policy such
as competition and pricing policy, employment policy and general governmental policy such as
environmental and tax policy, infrastructure policy, laws for registration and standard
regulations. Industrialization is a process of transforming raw materials and intermediate
goods into finished industrial products leading to economic growth and macroeconomic
stability. Its outcomes are; increase in the index of industrial production, economic, social and
political stability, increase in consumption and exports, availability of skilled entrepreneurs,
growing body of technological knowledge and emergence of home and foreign markets for
industrial goods.
Manufacturing is the making of products from raw materials using various processes,
equipment, operations and manpower according to a detailed plan that is cost-effective and
generates income through sales. This definition considers cost effectiveness in the processing
stage. The value added to the material through processing must be greater than the cost of
processing to allow the processing firm to make a profit. Value addition can thus be defined as
the increase in market value resulting from an alteration of the form, location or availability of
a product, excluding the cost of materials and services. According to Balami (2006) Economic
Page 5 of 26
32
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
growth used as a proxy by GDP is often conceptualized as increase in output of an economy’s
capacity to produce goods and services needed to improve the welfare of the country’s citizens.
Jhingan (2007) opined that economic growth is related to a quantitative sustained increase in
the country’s per capita output or income accompanied by expansion in its industrial activities,
consumption, capital and volume of trade.
In an attempt to facilitate and sustain industrialization in Nigeria, several policies and
institutions have been put in place: the indigenization policy 1972 (amended 1973), the
Structural Adjustment Program (SAP,1986), The Bank of Industry (BOI), the Standard
Organization of Nigeria (SON), as well as industrial core projects (ICPs) such as the Iron and
Steel Plants in Ajaokuta, Steel Rolling Mills in Jos, Warri, Kaduna; Petrochemical and Fertilizer
Factories in Port-Harcourt, Cement Companies at Calabar, Benue and Nkalagu; Machine tools
company several textile mills across the country and Sugar Plant in Numan. These were meant
to provide the necessary foundation for industrialization in Nigeria, however, empirical
literature shows that the ends has not justified the means. What types of policy are needed to
facilitate Nigeria’s industrialization and manufacturing and what is wrong? Nigeria’s largest
export earnings and contributions to GDP comes from oil and agricultural sectors, not industrial
sector, (CBN, 2012; Ekpo, 2014). According to Duru, (2000), Nigeria has not been able to make
positive progress in sustainable industrial development due to poor policy implementation,
resulting to industrial failure. Adeoye ,(2014) examined the growth and structure of Nigeria’s
industrial sector and revealed that it is far behind due to poor and inconsistent policies
implementation as a result of inadequate attention given to industries by the government.
Similarly, Garba, (2012) identifies corruption, inadequate finances, multiple taxation and
decayed infrastructure as the root causes of industrial failure in Nigeria.
Jeon (2006) set out to examine the relation between Manufacturing, Increasing Returns and
Economic Development in China from 1979-2004. Both time-series and regional panel data
formats were used to ascertain the relationship between productivity and economic growth
and development. Secondary industry data was used as a proximate for manufacturing sector
data. The study adopted Ordinary Least Square Regression Model in estimating this
relationship. In terms of the first law, the results show the growths of secondary and tertiary
industries are strongly correlated with the growth of GDP. The variation of the growth of
secondary industry explains 90% variation of the growth of GDP.
Obasan and Adediran (2010) investigated the role of the manufacturing sector in the economic
growth and development of the Nigerian economy covering twenty years, from 1980 to 2009.
The study employs Ordinary Least Square Regression (OLS) model for this purpose. The
findings suggest the existence of a very strong relationship between the manufacturing sector
and economic development. Obamuyi, Edun & Kayode (2012) studied the relationship between
the manufacturing output and economic growth, based on time series data from 1973 and 2009,
using the co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques, they did not
find any significant relationship between both variables in Nigeria. The reasons adduced for the
non-performance of the sector was the massive importation of finished goods and inadequate
financial support for the sector leading to reduction in capacity utilization of the manufacturing
sector.
Page 6 of 26
33
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
Again, the works of Olumuyiwa & Oluwasola (2016) examined the importance of the
manufacturing sector for economic growth in some selected African countries. In an attempt to
know whether the manufacturing sector hurt African economic growth in the long-term, they
approached the estimation process by way of testing Kaldor’s first law of economic growth
using panel data for a sample of 28 African countries over the period 1981-2015. Results
obtained from pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, and System Generalized Method of
Moments provides current evidence to support manufacturing as the engine of growth in Africa.
Theoretical Framework
This study adopts a combination of Bertrand and Cournot models in a profit maximizing
hypothesis with a separation of ownership and control, (Tirole, 1988; Ray and Stiglitz, 1995;
Sutton, 2007). Competition influences industrial policy and vice versa. Competition policy in
the European Union (EU), the USA, China, India and Japan affects industrial policy towards
research and development (R&D). Profits are derivable under quantity setting, (Cournot) and
also under price setting, (Bertrand), though the two models are often interpreted as
representing different degrees of competition, Carol et al, (2016).The basic intuition of the
Bertrand model is that unless prices are the same and equal to the common marginal costs of
“N” firms (in this case domestic and foreign firms), each firm has an incentive to undercut the
other. There are two firms (say Nigeria and Chinese firms) producing a homogeneous product
(say textile). The two firms interact in the market and they simultaneously and independently
set prices p1 and p2, and both firms have the same constant marginal cost “c”. The Chinese firm
with the lowest price (better endogenous characteristics) gets all the market demand at that
price. It is only if the two prices are the same that each firm gets half the market demand at that
price, producing Nash equilibrium outcome of the game; p1*= p2* =c.
The basic assumption of the Cournot model is that under certain conditions regarding demand
and costs, market power and total industry profits increase as concentration in an industry
increases. Higher concentration increases prices and profits because firms have more market
power, though it might also facilitate collusion among firms. This potential link between
concentration and market power has been influential in the practice of competition policy.
Concentration is itself endogenous; both concentration and profitability are determined by
basic industry characteristics such as technology, R&D, advertising, demand and general
enabling environment, which are inadequate in the context of local industries in Nigeria. The
demand is even tilted towards imported products. Increase in marginal cost asymmetry across
firms (foreign and domestic) in a Cournot oligopoly raises both industry concentration and
industry profits. However, the opposite holds as in Nigeria where foreign firms use favorable
industry characteristics to reduce their marginal costs, while domestic industries with
unfavorable characteristics and capacity constraints face increases in marginal costs. The
competition becomes highly skewed and scaled, in favor of foreign multinationals.Nigerian
industries face stiff competition with foreign industries. The Cournot and Bertrand models
provide better approximation to Nigeria’s industry characteristics as in the textile industry,
steel and automobile industry, and manufacturing and telecommunications industries.
Industry profits and specific firm’s profits vary. There may be profits in the industry, but these
profits are hi-jacked by foreign firms, while Nigerian firms run at a loss.
The major weakness of these models is that firms do not take their business decisions
simultaneously, and due to operational secrets, firms usually do not know their rivals’ costs,
Page 7 of 26
34
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
hence increase in marginal costs asymmetry across firms is not realistic. Also technology
transfer from foreign firms to local firms is difficult. As a solution to these weaknesses,
government needs to regulate firms with market power under asymmetric information to
balance market and industry competition. There should be regulation of trade liberalization in
favor of domestic infant industries. Government, through its policies, needs to have firm control
of domestic demand for imports. There should also be strict regulation of technology transfer
and industry employment policy.
METHODOLOGY
The methods of analysis used in this research are descriptive and quantitative analysis. A total
of 380 questionnaire survey was carried out, with 361 valid ones received. These methods of
analysis were adopted to allow for proper and detailed analysis of data using tables, simple
percentages evaluation, models, charts and graphs. Also, regression analyses were used to
estimate the models formulated.
MAJOR INDUSTRIAL POLICIES AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN
NIGERIA
Table 1: Catalog of some of the Industrial Policies/Institutions in Nigeria
POLICY YEAR
Customs Duties(Dumped and Subsidized Goods) Act 1958
Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) 1960s
Exchange Control Act 1962
Companies Act 1968
Industrial Development(Income Tax) Act 1971
Industrial Training Fund Act 1971
Nigerian Enterprise Promotion Decree (Indigenization Policy) 1972(1977)
National science and technology (S&T) policy 1986
Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) 1986
The Raw Materials Research and Development Council 1987
Nigerian Export Credit Guarantee and Insurance Decree 1988
The New Industrial Policy of Nigeria 1989
Trade and Financial Liberalization Policy 1989
Small and Medium Enterprises Equity Investment Scheme (SMIEIS) 2000
The Bank of Industry 2000
National Economic Empowerment & Dev. Strategy (NEEDS) 2004
National Integrated Industrial Development (NIID) 2007
The Nigeria Vision 20:2020 Industrial Strategy & 7-Point Agenda 2007
Nigeria Bank for Commerce and Industry 1973
The Standards Organization of Nigeria (SON) 1971
Industrial Park Development Strategy(IPDS) 2009
The National Information Technology Development Agency(NITDA)Act 2007
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council Decree 1976
A national science and technology (S&T) policy was formulated and launched in 1986.The
objectives of this policy were to increase public awareness in S&T and their vital role in national
development and well-being; direct S&T efforts along identified national goals; promote the
Page 8 of 26
35
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
translation of S&T results into actual goods and services, and to create, increase and motivate
output in the S&T community. The S&T policy marked the beginning of the recognition of S&T
efforts as a vehicle for successful industrial development in Nigeria. In order to facilitate the
achievement of the ‘self-reliance’ aspiration of the S&T policy, the Raw Materials Research and
Development Council, was established by Decree No. 39 in 1987. The Standards Organization
of Nigeria (SON) was also established for the purpose of ensuring standardization and adequate
quality control in industrial production. The S&T policy emphasized the transfer of foreign
technology to local firms, via the licensing and registration of patents, trademarks, technical
assistance, research and development, training, and operations.
In line with the NEEDS and Vision 20:2020 that sets the direction of Nigeria’s industrial policy,
industrialization strategy aims at achieving global competitiveness in the production of
processed and manufactured goods. This was to be achieved by linking the industrial activities
with primary sector activities, integration of domestic and foreign trade, and service activities.
However, by the end of 2020, the Nigeria industrial sector contributes less than 6 percent to
aggregate economic activities, while manufacturing subsector of the industrial sector accounts
for about 4 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).
Challenges of Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria.
Does manufacturing sub-sector contribute to economic growth? It depends on its development.
It is evident that the manufacturing sector contributes to economic growth. There are basically
two possible reasons why manufacturing sector exerts positive influence on economic growth.
The first relates to the fact that the expansion of manufacturing output and employment leads
to the transfer of labor from low productivity and low sustainable sectors such as agriculture
and oil respectively, to industrial activities that present higher sustainability and productivity
levels. The outcome is an increasing overall productivity in the economy, with positive
multiplier effects on the output of the former traditional sectors, (agriculture and oil sectors).
The second reason for the relation between manufacturing growth and productivity relates to
the existence of static and dynamic increasing returns in the industrial sector.
Table 2: Comparative Relevant Indicators: % Manufacturing
& Agriculture to Real GDP in Selected Countries
Years/Countries 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
Nigeria 56.94
(6.53)
30.01
(6.90)
31.17
(6.63)
33.87
(5.07)
41.14
(3.95)
38.4
(6.55)
22.12
(11.6)
Brazil 16.83
(28.16)
12.69
(30.00)
10.45
(32.72)
6.87
(20.28)
6.09
(16.96)
6.6
(20.7)
4.44
(18.5)
South Korea 33.78
(15.57)
26.06
(21.61)
13.43
(27.51)
6.64
(27.14)
3.44
(27.52)
4.9
(30)
1.7
(33)
India 42.53
(14.25)
38.91
(15.75)
31.99
(16.57)
27.64
(16.29)
19.74
(15.30)
18.3
(15.4)
27.4
(17.4)
South Africa 10.03
(21.68)
7.26
(21.52)
5.48
(22.84)
4.11
(20.96)
3.19
(17.73)
2.8
(29.7)
1.8
(16.2)
Sources: World Bank 2012; CEIC Global Economic Data Indicators; Trading Economics Data, 2020.
Page 9 of 26
36
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Static returns relate mainly to economies of scale internal to the firm, whereas dynamic returns
refer to increasing productivity derived from learning by doing, ‘induced’ technological change,
and external economies in production. Energy supply and energy consumption in the Nigerian
manufacturing and industrial sector is comparatively low, far below global standard in support
of effective industrialization. Nigeria has innovation deficiency in the energy sector, which also
affects the agricultural sector and other sectors. However, Nigeria’s energy resources
endowments ought to be converted and utilized for industrial production.
The figures outside the brackets represent the percentage contribution of agriculture to GDP,
while the figures in brackets represent percentage contribution of manufacturing to GDP.
Table 3a: Some Industrial potentials operating, but yet to attain full Capacity Utilization
Tie and die clusters in Oshogbo and Abeokuta Capacity under-utilized,
challenged by imports and
unfavorable domestic policies
Aba leather and footwear clusters Capacity under-utilized,
challenged by imports and
unfavorable domestic policies
Aba fashion and garment clusters Capacity under-utilized,
challenged by imports and
unfavorable domestic policies
Rice processing clusters in Ebonyi, Kebbi, Cross River,
Lagos, Benue, Nasarawa, Niger and Anambra States
Capacity under-utilized,
challenged by imports and
unfavorable domestic policies
Wood and furniture processing clusters in Calabar,
Uyo, Ibadan and Osun.
Capacity under-utilized,
challenged by imports and
unfavorable domestic policies
Nnewi automobile industry cluster Capacity under-utilized,
challenged by imports and
unfavorable domestic policies
Sea foods processing clusters in Borno, Niger, Cross
River, Benue, Akwa-Ibom, Kebbi, Rivers and Kogi
States.
Capacity under-utilized,
challenged by imports and
unfavorable domestic policies
Computer hardware village , Nigeria Silicon Valley,
Otigba, Lagos, Abuja
Capacity under-utilized,
challenged by imports and
unfavorable domestic policies
Page 10 of 26
37
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
Table 3b: Other industrial endowments
Fishery and sea foods Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Livestock processing Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Refined milk Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Metal, chemical and electricity generating
industries
Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Machine tools industries Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Tobacco related industries Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Car manufacturing industries Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Ship building Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Large scale investment in iron and steel
and industrial inputs
Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
pharmaceutical Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
technology, domestic policies and imports
Table 3c: Cottage or Household Industrial Opportunities
Shoe and leather works industry Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Textile and garment industries Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Agro-processing (cocoa, groundnut,
Cashew, Fruits, palm oil products etc.)
Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Toys and baby wears/napkins Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Ceramics, paper manufacture Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Arts and Culture Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Calculators and handsets Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Cosmetics and perfumes Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Stationeries and utensils Capacity under-utilized, challenged by
imports and unfavorable domestic policies
Innovation deficits and lack of political will aremajor factors responsible for capacity under- utilization in the oil and gas industry, as well as the non-oil industries. The manufacturing sector
has the potential to generate massive employment in Nigeria if the capacity was fully utilized.
The sector holds the key to Nigeria’s industrial development and macroeconomic stability.
Page 11 of 26
38
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Series1,
Primary
Industry, 70,
70%
Series1,
Secondary
Industry, 25,
25%
Series1,
Tertiary
Industry, 5, 5%
Fig 2: Industry Types in Nigeria
Primary Industry
Secondary Industry
Tertiary Industry
Series1,
Construction
Industry, 46,
18%Series1,
Extractive- mining, oil &
gas, 58, 22% Series1,
Financial
Industry, 45,
17%
Series1,
Manufacturing
Industry, 5, 2%
Series1,
Cottage
Industry, 10,
4%
Series1,
ICT/Telecommu
nication, 20, 8%
Series1, Textile
Industry, 15,
6%
Series1,
Insurance,
hospitalitality,
services
industry, 50,
19%
Series1, Power
Generation, 10,
4%
Fig 3: INDUSTRY TYPES IN NIGERIA Construction Industry
Extractive-mining, oil & gas
Financial Industry
Manufacturing Industry
Cottage Industry
ICT/Telecommunication
Textile Industry
Page 12 of 26
39
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
The question was raised on why Nigeria has not been successful in facilitating industrialization
and manufacturing. The valid questionnaires received were 361, with the following responses:
Other Causes of Industrial Failure in Nigeria:
Series1,
Ajaokuta Steel
Complex, 225,
19%
Series1, Kanji
Dam, 150, 13%
Series1, Ughelli
Thermal Plants,
80, 7%
Series1, Solar
Energy
Endowments,
200, 17%
Series1,
Agricultural
Endowments,
250, 21%
Series1, Sea
Ports, 100, 9%
Series1, Crude
Oil/Gas
Deposits, 160,
14%
Fig.4:Nigeria,s Industrial
Infrastructures/inputs
Series1, Poor
Industrial
Policies, 5, 1%
Series1, The
level of Policy
Implementatio
n, 200, 43%
Series1,
Political
Factor/Will,
150, 32%
Series1,
Colonial Factor,
46, 10%
Series1, Faulty
Economic
Structure/Instit
utions, 64, 14%
Nigeria's Failure to Industrialize
Poor Industrial Policies
The level of Policy
Implementation
Political Factor/Will
Colonial Factor
Faulty Economic
Structure/Institutions
Page 13 of 26
40
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Why Nigeria has not been successful in facilitating industrialization? The level of
implementation of industrial policies has the lion’s share with 43 percent. It shows clearly and
significantly too, why Nigeria has not been successful in achieving industrialization and
manufacturing. Nigeria started out the same time with South Korea, India and Brazil, but is now
struggling to catch up. What alternative strategies of industrialization has Nigeria failed to
adopt? Many blamed Nigeria’s lack of industrialization on neo-patrimonial colonial
background, but this practical survey shows that colonial factor had a small but significant 10
percent reason for Nigeria’s industrial failure. Therefore, one cannot deny the fact that
colonialism has a role to play in the process of state construction, economic structure and
industrialization in Nigeria. Power is the currency that states use to achieve their desired
industrialization and general development as in South Korea, India and Brazil. However, most
at times it has been used illegitimately in Nigeria, leading to lack of desired industrialization
and economic development. A clear example is the use of power during military rules in Nigeria
that caused political instability and policy inconsistencies. The survey above confirms this by
attributing 32 percent of industrial failure to political factor and lack of political will. This is
why Nigeria has not been successful in facilitating industrial transformation. The maximum
political commitment to propel industrialization has been absent. Industrialization and
manufacturing is state-led through policies and interventions, actualized by private sector
investments. Domestic manufacturers invest capital to provide alternative infrastructure for
their operations. Consequently, they bear huge costs which result in loss of competitiveness
and profitability in the domestic and foreign markets. This is enough dis-incentive to
manufacture. It becomes cheaper for them to import from China and Europe to repackage and
retail. It is a macroeconomic damage that most of Nigeria’s entrepreneurs are merely hawkers
of foreign goods for foreign manufacturers, where capital is repatriated in a vicious cycle on
daily basis, leaving Nigeria poor and the economy sick. Underutilization of industrial capacity
has resulted to low productivity of investment, low rate of returns, and very low aggregate
absorptive capacity and vice versa. Due to over dependence on imports of manufactured and
industrial inputs, exchange rate is a key determinant of manufacturing/industrial performance
in Nigeria.
Series1,
Inflation, 90,
25%
Series1,
Exchange Rate
Volatility, 70,
19%
Series1, High
Interest Rates
(Double Digit),
65, 18%
Series1, High
Tariffs, 40, 11%
Series1,
Corruption, 50,
14%
Series1,
Bureaucratic
Bottleneck, 15,
4%
Series1,
Reckless
importation,
31, 9%
Other Causes of Industrial Failure Inflation
Exchange Rate Volatility
High Interest Rates (Double
Digit)
High Tariffs
Corruption
Bureaucratic Bottleneck
Reckless importation
Page 14 of 26
41
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
Do the economic and social indicators favor industrial production and manufacturing?
Table 4: Nigeria’s Industrial Production and Value-Added Indices 2020
Corruption Index 26
Capacity Utilization (%) 15
Composite PMI 40.70
Competitiveness Index 116
Ease of doing Business (%) 10
Crude oil Dependence (%) 80
Solid Minerals (%) 0.10
Agricultural Value added (%) 25
Manufacturing to RGDP -1.90
Manufacturing PMI (%) 5.2
Source: Authors’ analysis of data 2020.
From the table, it is obvious that Nigeria’s industrial sector suffers from capacity constraints.
Transparency International (TI), in January 2021 rated Nigeria as the second most corrupt
country in Africa, after Guinea Bissau and 149th out of the 180 most corrupt countries in the
world. Apart from corruption, another social index with negative impact on Nigeria at the
moment is insecurity. These affect investment, the ease of doing business, imports, exports
control and manufacturing production. Since Nigeria has failed to have control over her
manufacturing production, it means she has also failed to have control over inflation, especially
imported inflation and exchange rate problems. If you can stabilize your production, then you
can control your prices.
Challenges of the Industrial Sector
There are obvious challenges, and these challenges are multi-dimensional, ranging from
infrastructure to institution, requiring a multi-dimensional approach. The primary data
presented in table 5 is a clear demonstration.
Page 15 of 26
42
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Table 5: Responses depicting major challenges of the Nigeria industrial sector
ITEMS SA A UD D SD
1. There was no significant investment in
power, railway, ports and other infrastructure
48% 50.5% 1.5% 0% 0%
2. There was no significant financial, legal
and infrastructural support from the government
36.6% 51.6% 3.6% 5.2% 3.1%
3. There was no significant investment in
manufacturing and export promotion
55% 34% 8% 3% 0%
4. Rails, roads and ports are extremely
important for trade and industrialization
72.7% 25.8% 1% 0.05% 0%
5. Industrialization affects unemployment
rate, poverty rate, exports and standard of living
40.2% 45% 5% 6.8% 3%
6. Inflation, exchange rate and imports affect
industrial performance
50% 20.5% 15% 8% 6.5%
7. The Bank of Industry(BOI) and Standard
Organization of Nigeria (SON) are currently doing
a great job to facilitate industrialization and
manufacturing in Nigeria
30% 32% 10.6% 20% 7.4%
8. Local entrepreneurs need more
encouragement to invest in domestic import
substituting industrial production
20.4% 48.3% 6.3% 15% 10%
9. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies
are needed to shift incentives in favor domestic
manufacturing and exports promotion
36% 34% 5.5% 20% 4.5%
10. Control of tariffs, subsidies, excise duties,
credits, loans, business registration and land
ownership could promote industrialization and
manufacturing in Nigeria
40..6% 30% 5% 24.4% 0%
Policy is also identified as a major challenge to industrialization and manufacturing in Nigeria.
What types of policies are needed to facilitate Nigeria’s industrialization and manufacturing?
This is shown in table 6.
Page 16 of 26
43
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
Table 6: Responses on policy needs.
ITEMS SA A UD D SD
1. Education, Research and Development
Policies
45.4% 42.3% 3.1% 5.6% 3.6%
2. Trade, capital, credits and technology
transfer policies
53.6% 41.8% 2% 2.1% 0.05%
3. Infrastructure policies 50% 33.7% 6.3% 7% 3%
4. Exports and Imports policies 31% 60% 2% 4.8% 2.2%
5. Financial reform policies 10% 40.5% 0% 30% 19.5%
6. Security policies 40.3% 35% 5.4% 10% 9.3%
7. Policies to protect infant industries 48% 44.6% 3% 1.4% 2%
8. Investment policies 20.5% 30% 10% 20.5% 29%
9. Land policy 10% 15.8% 25% 40.1% 9.1%
10. Legal policies on patent, copyright,
trademark, standardization, and company
registration, tax
45% 22% 3.5% 19% 10.5%
11. Environmental policy, climate change and
global warming
36% 20.4% 12% 20.3% 11.3%
12. Broad macroeconomic policies 50.6% 33% 4% 10% 2.4%
13. Local Content development policy 51% 40% 2% 3% 4%
Nigeria’s industrial failure and economic recession have market power explanations, though
Covid-19 has had significant impact on Nigeria’s trade, investment and economic growth. What
are the underlying policies and development model? The underlying policies should be
industrial policies and the development model is manufacturing. In order for the Nigerian
industrial sector to function efficiently and for the economy to grow consistently, Nigeria needs
to control a significant share of the regional and global markets. As a mere consumer, Nigeria
has no significant market power until it becomes a serious manufacturer and exporter of
diversified products. The absence of this is the cause of macroeconomic instability and the
disease with the Nigerian economy, with titanic impacts on poverty, unemployment and
inflation rates. Nigerian manufacturers face prohibitive costs due to policy duplication, over
reliance on imports, lack of basic infrastructure and ex-inefficiency.
Nigeria should learn a lesson from a country like China in terms of aggressive manufacturing
but with regulation of quality. China is selling cheap labor-intensive products like textiles, shoes
and all kinds of consumer goods which is crowding out jobs for Africa’s unskilled and semi- skilled labor. It also sells more sophisticated and fake products such as different electronic
devices, mobile telephones, wrist watches, kitchen utensils, military uniform and security
gadgets, cars and building materials, agricultural inputs and chemicals especially for low
income consumers and the governments. The Chinese have intimidating foreign reserves, their
economy has been growing consistently since the 1980s, and did not contract during covid-19
pandemic. China is using product differentiation to promote its exports with different
marketing strategies and channels. They develop a network of big and small Chinese traders
that penetrate local markets and assures regional sales where other foreign traders do not go.
These have helped the Chinese to capture African and Asian markets for Chinese goods. Nigeria
has the industrial potential to do these in the whole of Africa and beyond, but rather, Nigeria
Page 17 of 26
44
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
has been industrially captured by European, American, Chinese and other Asian entrepreneurs.
In the present global challenges of open trade, the pandemic and changing technology,
governance makes the difference in building an export-driven economy in Nigeria. Government
is the prime promoter of industrial policies, (Ndebbio and Akpan, 1991). Adequate provision of
physical infrastructural facilities such as feeder/access roads, water, electricity,
communications, storage and marketing facilities are preconditions for purposeful industrial
development.
Model Specification
This study adopts the multiple linear regression model. Models for time series data as this are
tested for autocorrelation usually with the assumption of homoscedastic disturbances. A form
of homoscedasticity that can be encountered in time series models is the (generalized)
autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) or (GARCH). The estimation procedures
for ARCH were also carried out using Eviews 10. The concept of ARCH is suitably applied for
volatile markets, in speculative markets like exchange rates and stock markets.The functional
form of the model is specified as;
MANIN = f (IP, ECHR, INFR, BOP) ....................................... (1)
Where:
MANIN= Manufacturing Index
IP= Industrial Policy
BOP= Balance of Payment
ECHR= Exchange Rate
INFR= Inflation Rate
The functional form in equation 1 above was transformed into a regressible model. In a multiple
linear equation form, equation (1) becomes:
MANIN = β0 + β1IP β2 ECHR –β3NFR + β4BOP + μt --------------------------- (2)
Industrial policy (IP) is represented by time variable which makes one year one data point. The
balance of payment is a book keeping system for recording all receipts and payments that have
a direct bearing on the movement of funds between a nation (private sector and government)
and foreign countries. The BOP contains some key items such as; the current account, the capital
account, trade balance and the official transaction balance, (Eneji, 2020). It is considered by this
study as one of the essential measures of macroeconomic stability in relation to Nigeria’s
manufacturing sector.The current account shows international transactions that involve
currently produced goods and services. The difference between merchandise exports and
imports, the net receipts from trade is called the trade balance. When merchandize imports are
greater than exports, we have a trade deficit, if exports are greater than imports, we have a
trade surplus.
Page 18 of 26
45
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
Regression Results
Table 7
Dependent Variable: MANIN
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/09/21 Time: 22:48
Sample: 1 37
Included observations: 37
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 6.053193 2.559085 2.365374 0.0242
ECHR -0.038013 0.020194 -1.882351 0.0689
BOP -0.000665 0.001232 -0.539994 0.5929
INLFR -0.121686 0.083936 -1.449747 0.1569
IP 0.194600 0.187010 1.040586 0.3059
R-squared 0.672819 Mean dependent var 3.929730
Adjusted R-squared 0.569421 S.D. dependent var 5.561967
S.E. of regression 5.365436 Akaike info criterion 6.322921
Sum squared resid 921.2129 Schwarz criterion 6.540612
Log likelihood -111.9740 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.399667
F-statistic 1.671400 Durbin-Watson stat 1.024528
Prob(F-statistic) 0.180878
Table 8 ARCH-Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
Dependent Variable: MANIN
Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) - Normal distribution
Date: 04/09/21 Time: 22:53
Sample: 1 37
Included observations: 37
Convergence achieved after 34 iterations
Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)
GARCH = C(6) + C(7)*RESID(-1)^2 + C(8)*GARCH(-1)
Variable Coefficien
t
Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
C 4.248729 2.018154 2.105255 0.0353
ECHR -0.043265 0.027117 -1.595518 0.1106
BOP -0.000555 0.001892 0.293246 0.7693
INLFR -0.021503 0.128650 -0.167142 0.8673
IP 0.283591 0.206288 1.374729 0.1692
Variance Equation
C 4.331179 5.202657 0.832494 0.4051
RESID(-1)^2 0.627603 0.479338 1.309312 0.1904
GARCH(-1) 0.349898 0.366325 0.955159 0.3395
R-squared 0.510844 Mean dependent var 3.929730
Adjusted R-squared 0.400301 S.D. dependent var 5.561967
S.E. of regression 5.562804 Akaike info criterion 6.404583
Page 19 of 26
46
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Sum squared resid 990.2333 Schwarz criterion 6.752890
Log likelihood -110.4848 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.527378
Durbin-Watson stat 1.036179
Source: Authors’ computation using Eviews-10. Secondary time series data and graphs depicting analysis are
presented in the appendices.
Table 9
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 04/09/21 Time: 23:13
Sample: 1 37
Lags: 2
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.
ECHR does not Granger Cause MANIN 35 1.35540 0.2732
MANIN does not Granger Cause ECHR 1.19079 0.3179
INLFR does not Granger Cause MANIN 35 2.72331 0.0819
MANIN does not Granger Cause INLFR 3.88695 0.0315
BOP does not Granger Cause MANIN 35 3.28475 0.0513
MANIN does not Granger Cause BOP 6.92926 0.0034
IP does not Granger Cause MANIN 35 4.35753 0.0328
MANIN does not Granger Cause IP 6.09622 0.0064
INLFR does not Granger Cause ECHR 35 0.56904 0.5721
ECHR does not Granger Cause INLFR 0.84150 0.4410
BOP does not Granger Cause ECHR 35 0.11471 0.8920
ECHR does not Granger Cause BOP 0.56142 0.5763
IP does not Granger Cause ECHR 35 6.68134 0.0425
5
ECHR does not Granger Cause IP 4.59211 0.0068
3
BOP does not Granger Cause INLFR 35 5.81562 0.0073
INLFR does not Granger Cause BOP 5.49076 0.0093
IP does not Granger Cause INLFR 35 0.75386 0.005
4
INLFR does not Granger Cause IP 2.65338 0.6228
IP does not Granger Cause BOP 35 5.94625 0.2475
BOP does not Granger Cause IP 3.31117 0.0698
DISCUSSION
Results show negative relationship between manufacturing (MANIN), exchange rate (ECHR),
inflation rate (INLFR) and imports, the latter proxied by the balance of payment (BOP).
Industrial policy inconsistencies and lack of implementation, imported finished goods, high
exchange rates and inflation rates have caused macroeconomic instability and crowded-out
domestic manufacturing. Industrial failure in Nigeria is a transmission effect of policy failure
and macroeconomic instability. Manufacturing failure granger causes macroeconomic
instability and vice versa. Nigeria has been an outlet for British manufactured goods, and
presently, for manufactured goods and consumables from China and other industrial countries.
The institutions inherited from colonialism favored only the exports of primary commodities.
Page 20 of 26
47
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
The nearly exclusive focus in the literature on appropriate policy choices is incomplete, even
misleading. Industrial policy choices matter, and its implementation matters most. These policy
choices must be explained, and more importantly, the impact of the same policy applied in two
different countries may vary in outcomes due to different contextual settings, different initial
conditions or backgrounds of the two economies, the political will and institutional conditions.
On issues of comparative political economy, there are dramatic variations in performance
across South Korea, Brazil, India and Nigeria, especially in rates of industrialization and
manufacturing. Adaptability to state economic priorities is a necessary prerequisite for
successful industrialization. Oil exports in Nigeriaprovided a ready source of income and
demand for foreign manufactures which blinded the government against local content
development and other sectors for decades, but this is not sustainable. It was worsened by
policy inconsistencies, political instability, corruption, low quality, high costs of imported
inputs, failure to support indigenous entrepreneurs and develop local contents, which
reinforced the existing weakness of the national private sector in manufacturing and industry.
Nigeria did not have a significant industrial base. Amongst the factors hindering Nigeria’s
industrialization are low rates of investment in the sector and unfavorable domestic
preconditions. There is a causal positive relationship between manufacturing exports and
economic growth. Manufacturing is a necessary and sufficient condition for macroeconomic
stability in Nigeria. Consequently, Nigeria needs greater economic competitiveness through
industrialization, manufacturing and exports. The Bank of Industry (BOI) and the Standard
Organization of Nigeria (SON) are doing a great job, however, local entrepreneurs need more
encouragement to invest in domestic import-substituting industrial production.
There is a significant bi-directional causality between industrial policy, manufacturing, exports
and macroeconomic stability. The absence of significant manufacturing exports is significantly
responsible for macroeconomic instability in Nigeria and vice versa. Weak industrial sector and
over-reliance on imports have created inflationary trends, exchange rate volatility and
macroeconomic instability. Domestic manufacturers face serious financial stress, policy
somersault and inconsistencies. Land, machines, buildings and other industrial inputs are
inflated beyond the reach of small scale industrial entrepreneurs. Total expenditure on
electricity, plant and equipment that is mostly undertaken with the expectation of reducing
costs, producing goods, increasing competitiveness, generating profits and growing the
economy often produces the opposite outcomes.
Nigeria has had a number of trade facilitation initiatives suitable for industrialization. In the
year 2020-2021, we have had the African Free Trade Facilitation Agreement signed with
common border arrangements, but with severe domestic fiscal crisis. We also have the
Economic Partnership Agreement and the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan. What matters is
evaluating the implementation of these initiatives. If 60 percent-70 percent of Nigeria’s
production and consumption are home-made, with quality value-addition, it will reduce over
reliance on imports, economic vulnerability and create employment. Nigeria will benefit from
these plans and agreements. Government revenue will increase for industrial infrastructures,
per capita income as well as the standard of living will rise. However, smaller African countries
like South Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, etc. could hijack the gains of trade agreements, if
Nigeria’s manufacturing subsector remains stagnant. Adequate preparation should be made to
facilitate domestic manufactures and exports. Presently, currency and exchange rate is a
serious challenge to Nigeria’s commerce and industry. The Nigerian economy is vulnerably tied
Page 21 of 26
48
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
to the US Dollar. This hinders domestic, regional trade facilitation as well as industrialization.
Importation of industrial inputs are so costly that Nigerian manufacturers are not competitively
profitable both at domestic and foreign markets.
RECOMMENDATIONS
This study recommends strict industrial policy implementation, economy diversification,
manufacturing value added, local content development, imports restriction, and export
promotion. Nigeria should strengthen her capacity to produce. An integrated manufacturing
transformation, using the instrument of industrial policy is urgently needed in the oil and non- oil sectors. Government intervention aimed at boosting private sector’s
investment/profitability is strongly recommended to achieve rapid industrialization in Nigeria:
creating enabling environment and putting solid infrastructure in place. Others are tariff,
subsidies, credit control, research and development, technology promotion, manpower training
and removal of bureaucratic bottlenecks in business registration, land ownership and general
transactions.
If Ajaokuta and other steel complexes in Nigeria were well developed, Nigeria will have no
business importing iron and steel. The costs of these inputs for building and construction will
drastically reduce, railway inputs, cars, spare parts, bicycle refrigerators, tractors and
machineries and other farm and industrial inputs will be domestically manufactured, used and
also exported. The multiplier effects on government revenue and jobs will be amazing. A survey
of Nigerian streets shows dumping of bicycles, cars and machineries that are not road-worthy,
but were imported using our hard-earned foreign exchange and causing macroeconomic
instability. If there are not financial control or exchange rate policy to protect domestic
manufacturers, high exchange rate has forced many out of business due to prohibitive costs;
cost of imported raw materials, electricity, transportation and inflation. This is why local
manufacturers in Nigeria find it difficult to produce competitive products both for exports and
for the domestic markets. For instance, a rubber shoe made in Nigeria at N2000 is more
expensive than a synthetic leather shoe imported from China at N1000.
Promotion of technology by investing in education, skills acquisition, research and
development and also bargaining with foreign firms to enable technology transfer.
Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, tariff and exchange rate policies to boost domestic
investment and domestic demand. Others are newer policies that shift the incentives in favor
of export promotion, promoting production for both domestic and foreign markets, subsidizing
exports without devaluing domestic currency. We recommend the aggressive expansion of
domestic markets for goods locally manufactured.
CONCLUSION
Nigeria deserves restitution from her colonial masters for the exploitation of her scarce
resources and underdevelopment of her industrial sector. Again, Nigeria would have used the
unsustainable huge oil revenue after independence to develop a sustainable industrial sector.
Market imperfections prevalent in Nigeria necessitated state intervention, indigenization, and
import substitution industrialization policies, but these have not been implemented to the
latter. Industrial growth is a key determinant of any country’s overall economic growth and
macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, economic growth remains a core element of
development. Government appears to be both the problem and solution to Nigeria’s
Page 22 of 26
49
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
industrialization. The only authority to create industrial policies and enforce compliance is the
government. The model of manufacturing cannot be complete until political will becomes a
major variable/determinant. Domestic manufacturing holds the key to Nigeria’s
industrialization and macroeconomic stability. Government should stop exporting primary
products, rally round the private sector to mobilize our natural resource endowments and
develop a technically up-to-date, diversified domestic economic structures characterized by
dynamic manufacturing. Nigerian industries need infrastructure, security as well as market,
which policy needs to implement.
References
1. Abba A. and Alkasum. E. (1985). The Nigerian Economic Crisis: Causes and Solutions. Lagos, Academic
Staff Union of Universities of Nigeria.
2. Adeola, F. A. (2005). Productivity performance in developing countries: Case study of Nigeria. United
Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Report.
3. Adeoye, O.J.(2014). Financial sector and manufacturing sector performance: evidence from Nigeria.
Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(3), 35-48
4. Alwyn Young (1995). The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting The Statistical Realities of the East Asian
Growth Experience. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.1(10), pp4-80.
5. Atul-Kohli (2008). State Directed Development: Political Power and Industrialization in The Global
Periphery. Cambridge University Press.
6. Carol.N., John .P., John .R., Abebe.S., Soderb .M. and Finn .T (2016). Manufacturing Transformation:
Comparative Studies of Industrial Development in Africa and Emerging Asia. Oxford Scholarship.
7. CBN (2012). Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin
8. Dike .M. and Onwuka .K.(1985). Trade and Politics in the Niger-Delta, 1830-1885: An Introduction to The
Economic and Political History of Nigeria. London, Oxford University Press.
9. Ekpo, A.H. (2014). Industrial development: A catalyst for rapid economic growth. In Udoh E, Ogbuagu U.R.
Essia (eds,) Industrial Development: A catalyst for rapid Economic Growth. P.N Davision Publications, Port
Harcourt.
10. Eneji .M.A., Tangka J.G., Eneji .A.I., Haruna .H., and Uzochukwu .P.C.(2020). Industrial Sector Performance
and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria: 1981-2018. International Journal of Management Studies and Research,
Vol8(12), pp 64-79.
11. Eneji .M.A. (2020). Introduction and Intermediate Macroeconomics. Universal Academic Services, PP292.
12. Forest .T.(1992). The Advance of African Capital: The Growth of Nigerian Private Enterprise. In Frances
Stewart, Sanjayi Lall and Samuel Wangwe (eds): Alternative Development Strategies in Sub-Saharan
Africa. New York, St Martin’s Press, pp 368-401.
13. Garba, A.S. (2010). Refocusing Education System towards Entrepreneurship Development in Nigeria: a
Tool for Poverty Eradication. Journal of Enterprises Development, International Research and
Development Institute, 1(1):1 – 8.
14. Jeon, Y. (2006). Manufacturing, Increasing Returns and Economic Development in China 1979-2004: A
Kaldorian Approach. Department of Economics Working Papers Series No. 08.
Page 23 of 26
50
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
15. Kwan-Suk Kim and Joon-Kyung Park (1985). Sources of Economic Growth in Korea (1963-1982). South
Korea Development Institute, pp169.
16. Lin G., & Chang M. (2009). Manufacturing industry and economic growth in Latin America: A Kaldorian
approach, 1-7.
17. Nafziger E.W.(1982). African Capitalism: A case Study of Nigerian Entrepreneurship. Stanford, Hover
Institute Press.
18. Ndebbio .J.E.U.(2006).Industrial Investment: Macro-Perspective. ILO Investment Poverty Reducing
Employment (IPRE) Study for Nigeria. In ILO Technical Report, Lagos, Nigeria.
19. Ndebbio .J.E.U. and Ekpo .A.H., (1991). The Nigerian Economy at the Cross-Roads: Policies and Their
Effectiveness. University of Calabar Press. Pp 454.
20. Obamuyi, T, Edun, A., & Kayode, O. (2012). Bank Lending, Economic Growth and the Performance of the
Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria. European Scientific Journal, 8 (3), 19-36.
21. Obasan, K., & Adediran, O. (2010). The role of Industrial Sector in the Economic Development of Nigeria.
Journal of Management and Society, 1(2), 9-16.
22. Obioma, E., & Ozughalu, U. (2005). Industrialization and economic development: A review of major
conceptual and theoretical issues. “Challenges of Nigeria’s Industrialization”. NES: Ibadan University
press, Nigeria.
23. Olukoshi .P. and Adebayo .O.(1995). The Political Economy of Structural Adjustment Program. In Said
Adejumobi and Abubakar Momoh (eds): The Political Economy of Nigeria Under Military Rule (1984-
1993). Harare, Sapes Books.
24. Olumuyiwa, & Oluwasola (2016). Manufacturing and economic growth in Africa: A panel test of Kaldor’s
First Growth Law. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(22).
25. Pack .H. (2000). Productivity, Technology and Industrial Development: A Case Study in Textiles. New York:
Oxford University Press.
26. Ray.P. and Stiglitz .J. (1995). The Role of Exclusive Territories in Producers’ Competition. RAND Journal of
Economics, Vol.26(3), pp 431-451.
27. Reich .K. (1982). Industrialization in India: Growth and Conflict. New Delhi, Oxford University Press.
28. Sutton .J. (2007). Market Structure: Theory and Evidence. In Armstrong .M. and Porter .R. (eds). Handbook
of Industrial Organization, Vol.3. Amsterdam; North-Holland. ISBN 9780444824356.
29. Tirole .J.(1988). The Theory of Industrial Organization. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. ISBN 9780262200714.
30. World Bank (1983). Nigeria Macroeconomic Policies for Structural Change. Washington DC. World Bank
Press.
31. WDR (1985). World Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC., USA.
32. World Bank, (2012). World Development Indicators, Washington DC. USA.
Page 24 of 26
51
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
APPENDICES
DATA FOR REGRESSION
ECHR INLFR BOP IP MANIN YEAR
0.426 6 -8 1 4.8 1960
0.563 6.5 1 2 6.9 1965
0.645 13.9 -29 3 4.3 1970
0.614 33.9 20 4 4.5 1975
0.53 10 12.94 5 8.9 1980
1.062 4.7 -2.31 6 10.6 1985
1.002 7.5 -2.74 7 9.8 1990
8.0596 12.9 -2.52 8 19.8 1991
9.9 44.5 0.16 9 7.6 1992
18 57.3 -5614 10 9.2 1993
21.86 57 -2989 11 -4.8 1994
21.87 73.1 -1794 12 -4.1 1995
22.05 29.1 -0.7 13 -0.9 1996
64.82 8.5 -0.6 14 -5.5 1997
81.65 10 -0.2 15 1 1998
81.886 6.6 -0.4 16 0.3 1999
81.886 6.9 -2.5 17 -3.9 2000
91.8 18.9 -2.2 18 3.5 2001
92.69 12.8 -2 19 2.8 2002
102.105 13.9 -2.1 20 4.2 2003
111.94 15.4 -1.7 21 10.9 2004
120.97 16.9 -1.8 22 5.7 2005
129.3565 8.4 -1.2 23 -2.5 2006
133.5 5.4 -2.3 24 -3.3 2007
132.14 12 10.7 25 3.5 2008
128.65 12.6 9 26 2.9 2009
125.83 13.8 5.1 27 4.5 2010
118.56 10.9 3.9 28 6.4 2011
148.88 12.2 3 29 6.5 2012
150.29 9 4.4 30 6.8 2013
153.86 8 3.6 31 6.5 2014
157.31 9 0.2 32 6.4 2015
158.55 16 -1.8 33 10.9 2016
253.49 12.6 3.4 34 7.3 2017
350.65 12.09 7.639 35 -5.7 2018
365.37 11.4 3.903 36 0.8 2019
379.5 12.88 4.355 37 -1.2 2020
Sources: CBN Money and Credits Statistics 2013-2016; CBN statistical bulletin (Various Issues); CBN annual report
and statement of accounts (Various Issues); World Development Indicators(Various Issues) and CEIC, Global
Economic Data Indicators.
Page 25 of 26
52
Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol. 11, Issue 2, February-2023
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
MANIN
0
20
40
60
80
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
INLFR
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
BOP
0
10
20
30
40
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
IP
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Standardized Residuals
Page 26 of 26
53
Agri, E. M., Kumo, A. A., Nshe, M. J., & Gabriel, A. A. (2023). Industrial Policies, Manufacturing Sector Development and Macroeconomic Stability in
Nigeria. Archives of Business Research, 11(2). 28-53.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.112.13767
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Residual Actual Fitted
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
MANINF ± 2 S.E.
Forecast: MANINF
Actual: MANIN
Forecast sample: 1 37
Included observations: 37
Root Mean Squared Error 4.989754
Mean Absolute Error 3.828291
Mean Abs. Percent Error 142.7632
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.441879
Bias Proportion 0.000000
Variance Proportion 0.412714
Covariance Proportion 0.587286