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Archives of Business Review – Vol. 8, No.6
Publication Date: June 25, 2020
DOI: 10.14738/abr.86.8348.
Verma, N. M. P., Gaur, M., & Kant, R. (2020) GDP Movements in High and Moderate HDI Economies: An Empirical Investigation.
Archives of Business Research, 8(6). 19-31.
19
GDP Movements in High and Moderate HDI Economies: An
Empirical Investigation
NMP Verma
Professor and Dean, School of Economics and Commerce,
Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, India
Monika Gaur
Doctoral Fellow at Faculty of Management Studies,
University of Delhi, India
Ravi Kant
Assistant Professor at Sri Ram College of Commerce,
University of Delhi, India
ABSTRACT
Economists worldwide acknowledge the estimation and implications of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Human Development Index (HDI) as
a measure of development across the globe. The analysis of GDP and its
various components are still useful in order to observe the financial
scenario of the economy. Since GDP does not include the various
relevant components of socio-economic and environmental activities,
it also does not reveal the real picture of economic progress. Several
efforts have been made by economists worldwide to quantify better
indicators of wellbeing. The Human Development Report, 1996,
pioneered the casual relationship between economic growth and
human development. There is a usual relationship between these two,
because economic growth creates the basis for human development via
providing financial benefits or monetary gains to the economy,
provided that the formulation of rational policies and their
implementation are appropriately executed. This study tries to
synthesize economic growth and human development. The research
employs Spearman rank correlation and Logistic regression of high and
middle human development countries across 1990 to 2017, to
determine the association mentioned above. The data is from the UNDP
database and various reports and articles related to human
development and economic growth.Policy implication is useful.
Keywords: economic growth, human development, well-being, gross
domestic product.
BACKDROP
The idea of estimating National Income was developed in the 1930s by a team of researchers led
by the economist Simon Kuznets, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measure was conceived in
response to the recognition that limited and fragmented economic information posed a challenge
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Verma, N. M. P., Gaur, M., & Kant, R. (2020) GDP Movements in High and Moderate HDI Economies: An Empirical Investigation. Archives of Business
Research, 8(6). 19-31.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.86.8348 20
to policymaking during the Great Depression, "GDP: One of the Great Inventions of the 20th
Century" (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2015). In our world economic system, from about more
than six decades, the estimation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its significance has been
widely acknowledged. The analysis of GDP and its various components has been still useful in order
to observe the financial scenario of the economy. The GDP is the sum of the value of all final goods
and services produced in a financial year. There are different methods of calculating GDP, such as
expenditure, value-added, and income method. Each of these methods has its own significance and
limitations. In most countries, the estimation of GDP compiles by Government agencies. In the
United States of America, the government collects and compiles data from the bureau of labor
statistics (BLS) then it goes to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which is part of the
department of commerce. Similarly, in the Republic of China, The statistics bureau estimates the
GDP and its components through their surveys. In India, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme
(MOSPI) is responsible for estimates of the GDP through the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO).
Generally, GDP measures the flow of Goods and Services within the market in an accounting year.
More technically, in the case of India, the expenditure approach has been employed to determine
the GDP, which takes the market value of all domestic expenditures made on final goods and
services in a single year. Consumption expenditures, investment expenditures, government
expenditures, and net exports (export subtracted imports) are the major components of the
expenditure approach to calculating GDP. In the calculation of GDP, numerous limitations have
been identified by several economists and policymakers throughout the evolution of measuring
economic progress. For Instance, GDP does not estimate some essential activities such as volunteer
work, social capital formation within healthy family units, the cost of social unrest or crime, the
cost of environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources.
Since GDP does not include the various relevant components of socio-economic and environmental
activities, it also does not reveal the real picture of economic progress. In 1934, Simon Smith
Kuznets, an American Economist and statistician who considered as the chief architect of the
United States national accounting system, caveated against equating GDP growth and economic
and social wellbeing. Kuznets's work to estimates the socio-economic wellbeing is allowed to
analyze the structure of the national income his theoretical development in the field of measuring
well being still significant. Later he awarded by Noble Prize in economic sciences for his prominent
work. According to U.S. Bureau of economic analysis, the purpose of GDP estimation GDP is to
reflect the economic growth in term of finance; what is the pattern of consumption of goods and
services; what percent of the change in production is due to inflation or deflation and, how much
of the income produced is being used for consumption and as opposed to investment or savings.
The estimation of GDP throughout the globe has been a measure of economic progress, which
further strengthens in the Bretton woods Conference. Most countries were facing socio-economic
turmoil after World War II. The economic crisis just after the WWII in terms of the higher
unemployment rate, declining the value of currencies or high level of inflation, lower economic
growth, higher trade deficit, fiscal deficit and social crisis in terms of rising crimes had been
responsible for developing an international unity for the economic corporation. The establishment
of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) was the resultant of the
socio-economic crisis. In the first meeting, 44 leaders of allied nations gathered in Bretton Woods
Meeting with the intent of reaping the benefits of international trade, political stability, and foster
peace. Throughout the evolution of estimating economic welfare and progress, the leading
economist, policymakers, and political leaders of the globe have been considered GDP as a wise
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Archives of Business Research (ABR) Vol.8, Issue 6, June-2020
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measure of economic progress in financial terms. The GDP and its trends have the strength to
measure the value of goods and services produced in a year; it also reflects the consumption
savings and investment scenario of the economy. The rise in GDP growth is an intrinsic factor in
expanding economic wellbeing. With the expansion of knowledge in the area of calculating
economic progress, there have been numbers of different indexes developed during the last three
decades. In the next section, the study moved towards measuring more realistic economic progress
by analyzing the difference between GDP and Welfare.
CONCEPTS OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) gives a clear definition of GDP:
"Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced
by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in
production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and
services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment
(Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2015).
There are numerous approaches to measure GDP, the "expenditure approach" measures GDP as
the sum of consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports, which is the most
familiar to many people. The expenditure side of the national accounts includes estimates of these
items as well as their components. Secondly, the "income approach" measures GDP by adding up
all of the income earned by various factors of production.
GDP (Y) = C + I + G + NX.
The components of this measure of GDP (Y) are;
1. Consumption (C): All household purchases of goods and services
2. Investment (I): All purchases by businesses of buildings, machinery, and tools, plus
purchases of new housing. The market value of changes in inventory also forms the part of
the investment component.
3. Government expenditure (G): All purchases of goods and services by local, State, and
Central governments. It includes the "purchase" of the services of all government employees
(including the military), but it does not include transfer payments like Social Security
benefits. Transfer payments do not form the part of government expenditure and hence
because they do not represent income from current production.
4. Net exports (N.X.): Net exports or a country's total exports less total imports.
Several attempts have been made by economists worldwide to quantify the better indicator of well- being. The formulation of policies based on GDP and its components has not cumulated into
welfare. Today, around the globe, several issues persist in terms of high unemployment, abject
poverty, higher income inequality, lower health status, low education level, and numerous
environmental degradation activities. Prof. Amartya Sen, in his seminal work Development as
Freedom (1999) observed, "constructed that the remarkable economic progress and wealth
created in the last century to the devastating deprivation, destitution, and oppression suffered by
billions of people worldwide, especially women and children." He argues for an integrative
framework in the economics that moves the focus from market expansion to the improvement of