Archives of Business Research

Vetting the Extrapolation Caution of Tamhane & Dunlop: A Time Series Forecasting Analysis

Moncef Belhadjali — 2024-11-09

Context In forecasting there are only two classes of Projections: Extrapolations or Interpolations. Interestingly, Interpolations usually, all but guarantee, that the theoretical expectations that rationalize the veracity of the forecasting profiles are the likely State of Nature. Simply: The [1-a]% Forecasting Prediction Interval [FPI] provides the expected-intel with a frequency of [1-a]%. However, for Extrapolations, [T&D] [8 p. 363] offer the following “Forecasting Bump in the Road” T&D Conjecture: “- - -extrapolation beyond the range of the data is a risky business should be avoided.” If T&D are correct that: Forecasting Extrapolations somehow compromise the linkages of the Projection of the Past into a Relevant Future, Then, indeed, Extrapolations should be avoided. T&D’s theoretical and experientially based caution has garnered very little vetting interest—Voilà: The motivation for our research report. Research Elements Initially, we offer a detailed analysis of the mathematical nature of an Extrapolation as it affects the Precision of the 95% Time Series [TS] Forecasting Prediction Interval [95%TSFPIs]. This is critical as, interestingly, T&D offer no detailed support for their risky business musing. For the inferential testing stage, we will use as the Y-Response Variate: The Capture Rate of the 95%TSFPIs. As we are using a DOE-Inferential Model, we are opting for two-Category Covariates: Extrapolations—[As they are the focus of our inquiry.] & Panel-Variation—measured as the Coefficient of Determination [CoD]—[As variation is the bane of forecasting.]. For DOE: testing, we have selected a random sample of 202 Panels from the S&P₅₀₀; for each Panel there are Three TS-Extrapolations and also Three [CoD-screens]. Results We found clear inferential evidence that as the Extrapolations move away from the mean of the TS time-index & The CoD increases that certain DOE-{Ext & CoD} Tukey-Kramer HSD-interaction-profiles suggest a failure to realizes the theoretical expectations of the Capture Rate of the 95%TSFPIs. We offer, for the first time, a deconstruction of these very interesting inferential DOE-results that rationalize T&D’s risky business musing.

Global Tax Risk of Imports: Is Royalty Payment Included in Customs Import Valuation?

Lau Chung Ming — 2024-11-09

Prompted by the need to expand to overseas market, numerous multinational companies (MNCs) engage in import and export. From the perspective of global tax, one significant tax risk regarding customs duty is considered as neglected. In recent years, several evidence has shown the necessary concerns in relation to customs duty. This study empirically examines the current legislations and latest trends of enforcement and valuation of import customs in major countries or regions, especially as they relate to the payment of royalties from overseas affiliates of MNCs to the headquarters. A single-case study was adopted to investigate and elaborate the issues associated with import custom practice of a typical Japanese MNCs. The findings indicate that the persons in charge or management seniors, besides the department of custom declaration, did not alert of or recognize any tax risks of royalty payment influencing import custom valuation and calculation. Relevant insights and recommendations are enumerated for future reference by other MNCs.

Bilateral Cooperation Between China and Peru Under the Belt and Road Initiative --From Strategic Layout to Future Prospects

Guo Yang — 2024-11-16

In recent years, the bilateral relationship between China and Peru has developed rapidly, especially with the advancement of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), leading to significant progress in cooperation across areas such as economy, trade, and investment. As a major country in Latin America, Peru holds unique advantages in terms of its geopolitical location, resource reserves, and market potential, making it a key partner for China within the region. This paper explores the background of Sino-Peruvian relations, the advancement of the BRI in Latin America, and the strategic importance of Peru's Chancay Port project.

Exploration of Digital Teaching Faced by Teachers in the Pandemic Era

Li-Chuan Chu — 2024-11-15

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a significant shift to remote work and distance learning, requiring individuals to adapt to new technologies. This study analyzed data from 2,500 junior high school teachers in Chaiyi, Taiwan, revealing that high system service quality positively impacts teaching competencies, teacher involvement, and effectiveness. Despite advancements in digital tools, challenges such as equipment availability and varying teacher willingness hinder widespread adoption. Effective remote teaching requires ongoing support from institutions and the enhancement of teachers' digital literacy to ensure optimal learning outcomes.

Economic Growth, Money Supply, Government Spending, Government Revenue and Inflation in Nigeria: An Empirical Perspective

Alan Harper — 2024-11-09

This study examines the relationship between real GDP (RGDP) and key economic variables—money supply, inflation, government spending, government revenue, and exchange rates—in Nigeria from 2004 to 2019. Using a multiple regression model, the findings reveal a strong fit, with an R Square value of 0.723, indicating that 72.3% of the variability in RGDP is explained by the model. The results show that government spending and revenue have a significant positive impact on economic growth, while inflation and money supply are associated with negative effects. The exchange rate also positively influences RGDP, though to a lesser extent. These findings highlight the importance of prudent fiscal and monetary policies in fostering sustained economic growth in Nigeria.

Entrepreneurial Influencers: Harnessing History to Guide Contemporary Opportunities

Erastus Ndinguri — 2024-11-16

This research utilizes management and entrepreneurial philosophies from Robert S. Abbott to highlight the life and accomplishments of an early influencer and the principles that contributed to his entrepreneurial success. In addition to exploring the influence of an early figure, the study employs essential pedagogy to develop an initial model that formulates a value proposition rationale for contemporary social media influencers who seek to leverage their influence for entrepreneurial gain.