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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal – Vol. 8, No. 6
Publication Date: June 25, 2021
DOI:10.14738/assrj.86.10373. Betz, F. (2021). Political Theory of Societal Association: Case of the Failed State Of Syria—Part 5 Brexit. Advances in Social Sciences
Research Journal, 8(6). 260-287.
Services for Science and Education – United Kingdom
Political Theory of Societal Association: Case of the Failed State Of
Syria—Part 5 Brexit
Frederick Betz
Institute for Policy Models, Seattle, WA
ABSTRACT
In this fifth paper of a series on failing states, we analyze the impact that the large
numbers of Syrian refugees from the Syrian civil war (2010-2019) had on political
association in Britain – triggering a major change British policy and possibly
threatening national unity. The theoretical model of political association is
composed of three dimensions in the political dichotomies of: (1) ‘kinship or
reciprocal-altruism’, (2) ‘centralization or decentralization-of-power’, and (3)
‘idealism or realism;. This is a cross-disciplinary political theory which can apply
to different societies and to different times in a society.
Key Words: Civilization, Failed States, Political Theory, Middle East, Colonialism, Ottoman
Empire, Great Britain, Brexit
INTRODUCTION
What kind of explanations can the social science theories use to explain events in society? A
case study of the Brexit event provides challenges in theoretical explanations and offers
empirical evidence to verity appropriate social science theory. We have been examining the
theory of political association in historical events related to the civil war in Syria. In four
previous papers which analyzed the histories of Syria and Lebanon as failed states, we have
shown that their history empirically contributes to grounding (verifying) a formal theory of
political association.
In this case, we add to the theory of political association, the modes of explanation in the social
sciences. For example, for the public good of the citizens of Great Britain, should Brexit have
occurred or not? The answer to this is a normative explanation in Brexit. What political factions
in British politics pushed Brexit, and how did they benefit? Those answers are empirical
explanations in Brexit. Both normative and empirical explanations occur in the social sciences
(in contrast to the physical sciences in which only empirical explanations are methodologically
appropriate). Understanding Brexit will further provide evidence for applying political
association theory to the issue of the stability or instability of a state. Brexit occurred in the
context of the failed state of Syria; and the event may have increased the possibility of Great
Britain failing.
BACKGROUND – SYRIAN CIVIL WAR AND REFUGES INTO EUROPE
While Islam has been the dominant religion of the Middle East, in the twentieth century, it also
became a major political factor in the newly independent states of the Middle East. Also, the
ideological concept of ‘Arab nationalism’ became the second major political factor in the Middle
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Betz, F. (2021). Political Theory of Societal Association: Case of the Failed State Of Syria—Part 5 Brexit. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal,
8(6). 260-287.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.86.10373
East. The theoretical model of political association explaining this historical situation of the last
al-Assad regime in Syria is shown in Figure 1. (Betz, )
Figure 1: Societal Stasis of The Bashar al-Assad Regime in Syria
In independent Syria, the idealism of Arab nationalism had faded, while the religious division
in Syria continued. The Alawite clans of the al-Assad’s took power there, Shia over Sunni.
‘Religious and Tribal Identity’ dominated the ‘Realism’ of Syrian governance, under the al-Assad
regimes. Syria never really became a ‘nation’ under the al-Assad’s -- but only a one-party
(Ba’athist) and one-clan (Alawite) authoritarian state.
The army of the al-Assad, under its Alawite governments, treated the Syrian Sunnis as rebels
and by extensive bombing destroyed Syrian towns, outside of Damascus.
Emptying Syrian cities Sunni Syrians, they fled to Lebanon, Turkey, and Europe. This provided
an opportunity for conquest of the devastated territory by a new ideological group, ISIS. (Betz,
) ISIL/ISIS/IS formed militias of dissident Sunnis to attack major cities in Iraq and Syria. The
‘Real’ politics of Syria then became a Sunni-Shite religious (‘Reciprocal-Altruism Association’)
divide in Syria and Iraq. Then ISIS, a radical Wahhabis caliphate, conquered large amounts of
territory in eastern Syria and northern Iraq
The brutal and murderous terror of the ISIS caliphate government alienated European
countries, which ISIS terrorized. Next under the ISIS assaults, the al-Assad Syrian government
was about to collapse -- but was rescued by the Russian air force and the Iranian-supported
Hezbollah. In Iraq, U.S. aid helped Iraq to rebuild its army and retake Mosul, with the ground
force assistance of Iranian militia and Kurdish Peshmerga. Also with U.S. air force help, the
Kurds and Sunni Muslim rebel militias and Iranian Hezbollah militias retook the eastern Syrian
cities, defeating ISIS.
In Figure 2, we show a ‘meta-model’ of the the theoretical model of political association of the
ISIS caliphate, as the ‘context’ of the application of the theory of ‘political association’. [Betz, ]
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Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal (ASSRJ) Vol. 8, Issue 6, June-2021
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Figure 2: International Context of the Political Association in Syria
This was the international context of the political association of the ISIS caliphate -- in which
the forces of Iran, Russia, and the U.S. provided the military support to enable the Kurds, rebel
Syrians, and Hezbollah militias to recapture ISIS cities and crush the Caliphate. Depicted as a
meta-model of the political association in Syria, this context is needed to understand the impact
of the Syrian civil war upon neighboring countries -- particularly in Europe.
Bashar al-Assad’s government had to be rescued from complete collapse by Russian warplanes
and Iranian Hezbollah militias. Bashar’s father and Bashar had constructed a state wherein
Alawite Shiites dominated the government, economy, and military officers, resulting in an
unstable state and not a stable nation.
One notes that no international organization (e.g., UN, NATO, EU) intervened to stop Bashar al- Assad’s bombing of his own Syrian cities and non-Alawite citizens. And no international
organization intervened to destroy ISIS. All military action was taken or supported by the
respective national interests of Russia, US, and Iran. And since Russia and Iran opposed the
interests of the U.S., Syria was not put back together again -- nor did the refugee outflow end
nor did al-Assad genocide on Syrian Sunni and Kurd citizens end. The Syrian civil wars went
on into 2021, and the refugee crisis in Europe and Turkey continued.
Refugee flow out of Syria was large -- into the neighboring states of Lebanon and Turkey and
into Europe. Aram Nerguizian wrote: “The other key sources of instability in Syria include
demographic shifts, ethnic cleansing, and the creation of both massive refugee and internally
displaced persons (IDP) populations. By mid-2015, some 7.6 million Syrians had become IDPs
and an additional 3.9 million were refugees in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt – more
than 51 percent of Syria’s total population in 2013.” (Nerguizian, 2015)
By 2015, the United Nations (UNHCR) estimated that 12 million people in Syria needed
humanitarian assistance. About 1.9 million Syrians had fled into Turkey, and 1.1 million into
Lebanon. In 2016, over 13 million people required assistance. Turkey had received over 3.5